{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a09ce528-d56c-4a9f-a660-9e226271b7da", "symbol": "XPRO", "name": "Expro Group Holdings NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.672, "architecture_energy": 20.904, "architecture_maturity": 20.667, "architecture_confidence": 55.561, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.85, "rotation_up": 56.27, "upward_expansion": 38.86, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 17.86, "downward_expansion": 16.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.292667, 15.752182, 15.737381, 15.974237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.96, "trend_reference": 16.215, "distance_from_trend": 0.045945, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.60141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.087081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.751079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018007, "excess_performance": -0.107618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045945, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036831, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.087081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122084, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017511, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022725, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.077716, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4138585, "relative_activity": 0.759953, "balance": 4.077716, "dry_up": 0.893778, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095995, "annualized_volatility": 0.487992, "from_high_reference": -0.094501, "from_low_reference": 0.728848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.215, "fair_value_reference": 15.60141, "structural_low": 12.725, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.084337, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.068055, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.194679, "worst_return": -0.213961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036017, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.064772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289649, "worst_return": -0.325183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03968, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.520418, "worst_return": -0.361369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.514045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038936, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00081, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11256, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.521402, "energy": 38.944124, "activity_lines": [ 14.585333, 14.986909, 15.714048, 15.923032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.46, "volume": 5052400, "typical_volume": 5722079.7, "trend": 15.861, "fair_value": 15.763141, "relative_strength": -2.732622, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.389372, "energy": 38.748286, "activity_lines": [ 14.784, 14.992727, 15.640476, 15.900215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.48, "volume": 4780817, "typical_volume": 5636408.2, "trend": 15.978, "fair_value": 15.727756, "relative_strength": 4.488277, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.656931, "energy": 16.763806, "activity_lines": [ 15.317333, 15.230909, 15.675143, 15.940151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.79, "volume": 5025782, "typical_volume": 5595982.25, "trend": 16.058333, "fair_value": 15.686731, "relative_strength": 0.011556, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.876477, "energy": 17.386148, "activity_lines": [ 15.619333, 15.323455, 15.650667, 15.928022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.95, "volume": 5524310, "typical_volume": 5562628.2, "trend": 16.135333, "fair_value": 15.641474, "relative_strength": -0.44919, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.603365, "energy": 18.326819, "activity_lines": [ 15.843333, 15.446182, 15.645476, 15.921032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.96, "volume": 4138585, "typical_volume": 5445844.0, "trend": 16.215, "fair_value": 15.60141, "relative_strength": 1.751079, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.672266, "energy": 20.903724, "activity_lines": [ 16.292667, 15.752182, 15.737381, 15.974237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }