{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0a16194-0ae6-4582-9f68-155f899e7f90", "symbol": "MLFDV", "name": "FD SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.29, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.305, "architecture_energy": 44.607, "architecture_maturity": 55.764, "architecture_confidence": 61.547, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.61, "rotation_up": 34.07, "upward_expansion": 62.86, "deceleration": 73.12, "rotation_down": 27.28, "downward_expansion": 15.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.42, 0.409714, 0.400202 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.42, "trend_reference": 0.396067, "distance_from_trend": 0.060428, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.401602, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.045811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.479876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.009434, "excess_performance": -0.062745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.045811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16018, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170292, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.009434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.20202, "balance": 1.0, "dry_up": 4.79798, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027473, "annualized_volatility": 0.442512, "from_high_reference": -0.098712, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.396067, "fair_value_reference": 0.401602, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022585, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.480001, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.050209, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.047208, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.472135, "worst_return": -0.153845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.286154, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.361976, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.430075, "worst_return": -0.478261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.188824, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.180174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.02439, "worst_return": -0.434783, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.309306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087137, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141631, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.263108, "energy": 57.63676, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.415273, 0.39359, 0.391837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.3, "trend": 0.3934, "fair_value": 0.399003, "relative_strength": 1.886674, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.847999, "energy": 61.353848, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.418364, 0.397076, 0.393596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20.15, "trend": 0.394067, "fair_value": 0.399426, "relative_strength": 2.122227, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.455242, "energy": 54.861704, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.420182, 0.400467, 0.395312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.42, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1.1, "trend": 0.394733, "fair_value": 0.400189, "relative_strength": 1.95231, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.870641, "energy": 52.777131, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.420727, 0.403762, 0.396985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.42, "volume": 188, "typical_volume": 9.8, "trend": 0.3954, "fair_value": 0.400896, "relative_strength": 0.606522, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.52578, "energy": 48.143558, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.42, 0.406905, 0.398615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.42, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 9.9, "trend": 0.396067, "fair_value": 0.401602, "relative_strength": -1.479876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.304963, "energy": 44.606667, "activity_lines": [ 0.42, 0.42, 0.409714, 0.400202 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }