{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0a25d55-7abf-4d43-be6c-b2092df276e4", "symbol": "581", "name": "Sunrise Shares Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.343, "architecture_energy": 14.825, "architecture_maturity": 21.861, "architecture_confidence": 75.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.41, "rotation_up": 28.56, "upward_expansion": 20.71, "deceleration": 50.33, "rotation_down": 36.91, "downward_expansion": 59.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025667, 0.025836, 0.025543, 0.026026 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.0271, "distance_from_trend": -0.077491, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.028045, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.544607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.107143, "excess_performance": -0.261978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077491, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295446, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157938, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.107143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.159174, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 237000, "relative_activity": 0.807702, "balance": 0.159174, "dry_up": 0.373605, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12, "annualized_volatility": 0.682099, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0271, "fair_value_reference": 0.028045, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.027047, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.036082, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 1.864865, "worst_return": -0.243902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.080128, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.07566, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.642857, "worst_return": -0.176471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.159539, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.725, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.45, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.060606, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.037, "volume": 1484900, "typical_volume": 2047190.0, "trend": 0.035067, "fair_value": 0.043154, "relative_strength": 3.866054, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", 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0.025733, 0.025345, 0.025619, 0.026604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.027, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 271775.0, "trend": 0.028, "fair_value": 0.028327, "relative_strength": -24.091909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.624277, "energy": 14.834921, "activity_lines": [ 0.026267, 0.025655, 0.025676, 0.026531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 100100, "typical_volume": 276780.0, "trend": 0.0279, "fair_value": 0.028276, "relative_strength": -21.034267, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.574516, "energy": 14.463685, "activity_lines": [ 0.026933, 0.026091, 0.025833, 0.026531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 100000, "typical_volume": 281505.0, "trend": 0.027567, "fair_value": 0.028186, "relative_strength": -35.212417, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.508817, "energy": 17.520009, "activity_lines": [ 0.0258, 0.025636, 0.025514, 0.026215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.027, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 281575.0, "trend": 0.027367, "fair_value": 0.028128, "relative_strength": -23.817323, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.591998, "energy": 5.195259, "activity_lines": [ 0.026133, 0.025964, 0.025614, 0.026178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 237000, "typical_volume": 293425.0, "trend": 0.0271, "fair_value": 0.028045, "relative_strength": -29.544607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.343144, "energy": 14.824839, "activity_lines": [ 0.025667, 0.025836, 0.025543, 0.026026 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }