{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0a6639f-f662-4883-bf4a-7852859a29b6", "symbol": "002187", "name": "Guangzhou Grandbuy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.301, "architecture_energy": 38.751, "architecture_maturity": 97.523, "architecture_confidence": 90.361, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.54, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 18.32, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 39.14, "downward_expansion": 68.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.082, 5.009273, 5.274429, 5.619505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.25, "trend_reference": 6.224333, "distance_from_trend": -0.156536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.175727, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.278364, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.33121, "excess_performance": -0.33861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105271, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149898, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222784, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041059, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789783, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50175489, "relative_activity": 1.114277, "balance": 0.789783, "dry_up": 1.514816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081026, "annualized_volatility": 0.318911, "from_high_reference": -0.468085, "from_low_reference": 0.148796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.224333, "fair_value_reference": 6.175727, "structural_low": 4.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.000602, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015365, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.339623, "worst_return": -0.191379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.016216, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001043, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.307937, "worst_return": -0.205088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001146, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.242378, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.93, "volume": 82677734, "typical_volume": 44903869.05, "trend": 6.514333, "fair_value": 6.207081, "relative_strength": -25.807015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.396483, "energy": 67.365683, "activity_lines": [ 4.860667, 5.045636, 5.448095, 5.874538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.72, "volume": 57310200, "typical_volume": 44053442.9, "trend": 6.397, "fair_value": 6.195693, "relative_strength": -28.613752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.45656, "energy": 66.716413, "activity_lines": [ 4.812667, 4.952, 5.346048, 5.758774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.29, "volume": 82682978, "typical_volume": 45607926.8, "trend": 6.301667, "fair_value": 6.186882, "relative_strength": -18.194217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.037904, "energy": 53.219116, "activity_lines": [ 4.974, 4.981091, 5.308857, 5.687355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.25, "volume": 50175489, "typical_volume": 45029641.15, "trend": 6.224333, "fair_value": 6.175727, "relative_strength": -22.278364, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.301184, "energy": 38.751424, "activity_lines": [ 5.082, 5.009273, 5.274429, 5.619505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }