{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0b3c862-7b77-43f5-9824-4d1b516e4803", "symbol": "ORIO", "name": "Orion Digital Corp.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.406, "architecture_energy": 85.608, "architecture_maturity": 90.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.542, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 9.77, "upward_expansion": 20.89, "deceleration": 37.33, "rotation_down": 81.53, "downward_expansion": 98.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.65944, 0.724496, 0.815181, 0.878146 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.647, "trend_reference": 0.968333, "distance_from_trend": -0.331842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.36527, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.526101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.760465, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.427434, "excess_performance": -0.614887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.331842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121935, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.526101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.537605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.427434, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.116195, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 266556, "relative_activity": 1.314805, "balance": 0.116195, "dry_up": 1.124418, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159196, "annualized_volatility": 0.384322, "from_high_reference": -0.68744, "from_low_reference": 0.060654 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.968333, "fair_value_reference": 1.36527, "structural_low": 0.610001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.076433, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.682927, "median_excess_return": -0.079593, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.679, "worst_return": -0.352148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.077596, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.099193, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.252632, "worst_return": -0.611966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.192767, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.285906, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.084211, "worst_return": -0.626645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.104478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.526316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.788618, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01676, "active": 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"fair_value": 1.394941, "relative_strength": -51.799315, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.127048, "energy": 80.981763, "activity_lines": [ 0.776673, 0.824413, 0.892618, 0.946008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6498, "volume": 164020, "typical_volume": 206904.65, "trend": 0.998507, "fair_value": 1.38466, "relative_strength": -52.737341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.201222, "energy": 86.94044, "activity_lines": [ 0.721933, 0.786042, 0.864763, 0.922672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6478, "volume": 202204, "typical_volume": 205197.75, "trend": 0.986433, "fair_value": 1.374394, "relative_strength": -52.287702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.866673, "energy": 88.391227, "activity_lines": [ 0.683413, 0.752747, 0.839053, 0.900045 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.647, "volume": 266556, "typical_volume": 202734.3, "trend": 0.968333, "fair_value": 1.36527, "relative_strength": -53.760465, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.405537, "energy": 85.608455, "activity_lines": [ 0.65944, 0.724496, 0.815181, 0.878146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }