{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0ba4e79-eb56-4eb9-a572-22ff500c4980", "symbol": "IPCO", "name": "International Paper Company", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 48.584, "architecture_energy": 51.085, "architecture_maturity": 21.042, "architecture_confidence": 64.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.18, "rotation_up": 69.14, "upward_expansion": 54.23, "deceleration": 35.51, "rotation_down": 18.57, "downward_expansion": 14.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.026667, 34.225455, 32.117151, 31.875747 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.0, "trend_reference": 32.344334, "distance_from_trend": 0.113023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 38.570121, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.82583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043739, "excess_performance": -0.217986, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113023, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008647, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066635, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233796, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213901, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.687634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5306, "relative_activity": 6.486553, "balance": 5.687634, "dry_up": 4.140281, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054302, "annualized_volatility": 0.414299, "from_high_reference": -0.116935, "from_low_reference": 0.442596 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.344334, "fair_value_reference": 38.570121, "structural_low": 24.955019, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.052632, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.06908, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": 0.052632, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.438675, "energy": 60.987007, "activity_lines": [ 33.453334, 32.238864, 30.716832, 31.277453 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.0, "volume": 2132, "typical_volume": 531.55, "trend": 32.228774, "fair_value": 38.624228, "relative_strength": -17.557662, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.31009, "energy": 58.961806, "activity_lines": [ 33.653334, 32.81091, 31.063022, 31.395246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.0, "volume": 5618, "typical_volume": 655.5, "trend": 32.323462, "fair_value": 38.596893, "relative_strength": -11.989257, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.691012, "energy": 46.75957, "activity_lines": [ 34.4, 33.600001, 31.599144, 31.638551 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.0, "volume": 5306, "typical_volume": 818.0, "trend": 32.344334, "fair_value": 38.570121, "relative_strength": -13.82583, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.584291, "energy": 51.085242, "activity_lines": [ 35.026667, 34.225455, 32.117151, 31.875747 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }