{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0bb0a11-9f9f-476a-92a8-0d34d11aa793", "symbol": "NCLH", "name": "Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 68.398, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.31, "architecture_energy": 16.227, "architecture_maturity": 26.632, "architecture_confidence": 59.247, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.13, "rotation_up": 13.15, "upward_expansion": 16.03, "deceleration": 63.19, "rotation_down": 39.95, "downward_expansion": 52.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.134, 19.470909, 19.090095, 19.282624 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.25, "trend_reference": 19.849, "distance_from_trend": -0.030178, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.083974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.041524, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.931179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174528, "excess_performance": -0.300153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030178, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0183, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.041524, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174528, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408298, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74942330, "relative_activity": 0.778857, "balance": 1.408298, "dry_up": 0.767756, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105221, "annualized_volatility": 0.531752, "from_high_reference": -0.291756, "from_low_reference": 0.324836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.849, "fair_value_reference": 20.083974, "structural_low": 14.5301, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.004769, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.052847, "regime_survival": 0.421053, "best_return": 0.379594, "worst_return": -0.367566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.053067, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.05672, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.735705, "worst_return": -0.454713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.029931, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.193081, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.555972, "worst_return": -0.397874, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.006894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.173536, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.125408, "worst_return": -0.580575, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117819, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.117077, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.23652, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.196214, "energy": 13.214889, "activity_lines": [ 19.866667, 19.562545, 19.060714, 19.497011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.37, "volume": 58111166, "typical_volume": 97746610.55, "trend": 20.166667, "fair_value": 20.070192, "relative_strength": -16.118634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.794603, "energy": 9.993374, "activity_lines": [ 19.621333, 19.650364, 19.098286, 19.438215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.53, "volume": 112920574, "typical_volume": 97330885.5, "trend": 20.025, "fair_value": 20.07391, "relative_strength": -19.884961, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.92621, "energy": 17.693703, "activity_lines": [ 19.167333, 19.515455, 19.059095, 19.332624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.25, "volume": 74942330, "typical_volume": 96220966.35, "trend": 19.849, "fair_value": 20.083974, "relative_strength": -18.931179, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.309881, "energy": 16.226753, "activity_lines": [ 19.134, 19.470909, 19.090095, 19.282624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }