{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0be1683-6da6-4a45-9fcf-46045145e9a5", "symbol": "SAFE", "name": "Global X Equal Weight Canadian Insurance Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.094, "architecture_energy": 67.685, "architecture_maturity": 82.762, "architecture_confidence": 91.492, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.08, "rotation_up": 60.36, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.81, "rotation_down": 28.4, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.877238, 28.630187, 27.419765, 26.289448 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.57, "trend_reference": 24.954265, "distance_from_trend": 0.144894, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.047994, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.295809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.339532, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.262212, "excess_performance": 0.14179, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144894, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.295809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124483, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083395, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262212, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.939539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23800, "relative_activity": 0.367511, "balance": 2.939539, "dry_up": 0.459389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024737, "annualized_volatility": 0.127359, "from_high_reference": -0.039443, "from_low_reference": 0.442197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.954265, "fair_value_reference": 22.047994, "structural_low": 21.461552, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06549, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054056, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.080446, "worst_return": 0.050535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115344, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 19.543842, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 19.800365, "volume": 3500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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89335.0, "trend": 24.590388, "fair_value": 21.896264, "relative_strength": 13.98192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.915907, "energy": 90.210502, "activity_lines": [ 28.900056, 28.247599, 26.825658, 25.758813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.030001, "volume": 55200, "typical_volume": 75005.0, "trend": 24.784764, "fair_value": 21.975528, "relative_strength": 13.896373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.972516, "energy": 69.414265, "activity_lines": [ 28.99725, 28.511753, 27.161219, 26.045239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.57, "volume": 23800, "typical_volume": 64760.0, "trend": 24.954265, "fair_value": 22.047994, "relative_strength": 8.339532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.094098, "energy": 67.685122, "activity_lines": [ 28.877238, 28.630187, 27.419765, 26.289448 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }