{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0c06295-24a0-4f34-a1c8-0559089e17f2", "symbol": "600376", "name": "Beijing Capital Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.795, "architecture_energy": 27.87, "architecture_maturity": 93.555, "architecture_confidence": 79.065, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.91, "rotation_up": 26.43, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 46.79, "rotation_down": 33.14, "downward_expansion": 62.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.77, 3.651636, 3.869238, 4.180215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 4.640333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116443, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.573654, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147285, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.189708, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267857, "excess_performance": -0.224653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116443, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143429, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147285, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.56122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1115570952, "relative_activity": 2.538319, "balance": 1.56122, "dry_up": 1.585804, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145779, "annualized_volatility": 0.594494, "from_high_reference": -0.536723, "from_low_reference": 0.576923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.640333, "fair_value_reference": 3.573654, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.012891, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": 0.003108, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.355932, "worst_return": -0.277652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.029382, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.030692, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.378261, "worst_return": -0.26776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.175523, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.146864, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.410788, "worst_return": -0.245902, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.227129, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229075, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.110266, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012448, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", 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-65.404056, "energy": 51.632935, "activity_lines": [ 3.407333, 3.503273, 3.902952, 4.270559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.02, "volume": 778884422, "typical_volume": 403540310.15, "trend": 4.724, "fair_value": 3.573141, "relative_strength": -16.134698, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.050851, "energy": 37.157647, "activity_lines": [ 3.602667, 3.567273, 3.878524, 4.220473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 1115570952, "typical_volume": 439491951.75, "trend": 4.640333, "fair_value": 3.573654, "relative_strength": -17.189708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.795273, "energy": 27.870287, "activity_lines": [ 3.77, 3.651636, 3.869238, 4.180215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }