{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0c6f17a-742f-4600-b530-2f9d3e1e577f", "symbol": "FXE", "name": "INVESCO CCY SHS EURO TR EURO SHS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.306, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.491, "architecture_energy": 21.722, "architecture_maturity": 55.153, "architecture_confidence": 89.093, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.6, "rotation_up": 28.84, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 31.88, "downward_expansion": 64.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.993148, 105.768001, 106.262937, 106.576933 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 106.68, "trend_reference": 107.056753, "distance_from_trend": -0.003519, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 101.276032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053359, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.382077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.019813, "excess_performance": -0.145438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.003519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053359, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027255, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82489, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 407957, "relative_activity": 0.482019, "balance": 0.82489, "dry_up": 0.378066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.009415, "annualized_volatility": 0.063045, "from_high_reference": -0.040628, "from_low_reference": 0.020567 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.056753, "fair_value_reference": 101.276032, 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"fair_value": 101.153993, "relative_strength": -9.529635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.87942, "energy": 70.650743, "activity_lines": [ 105.192427, 105.531684, 106.275513, 106.647592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 106.407031, "volume": 329757, "typical_volume": 888275.45, "trend": 107.0686, "fair_value": 101.212388, "relative_strength": -8.859448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.558465, "energy": 39.857339, "activity_lines": [ 105.593532, 105.620013, 106.2591, 106.602004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 106.68, "volume": 407957, "typical_volume": 846350.65, "trend": 107.056753, "fair_value": 101.276032, "relative_strength": -11.382077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.49121, "energy": 21.722279, "activity_lines": [ 105.993148, 105.768001, 106.262937, 106.576933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }