{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0c9c8ce-b436-4452-9e0d-048bd338d668", "symbol": "300393", "name": "Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.512, "architecture_energy": 84.947, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.984, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 11.55, "upward_expansion": 21.18, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 76.34, "downward_expansion": 96.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.896667, 6.357636, 7.674952, 8.344022 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 8.837667, "distance_from_trend": -0.2928, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.674203, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185583, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.762503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235941, "excess_performance": -0.243341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.2928, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.629987, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.54294, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235941, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.151584, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108732228, "relative_activity": 0.631598, "balance": 0.151584, "dry_up": 0.676769, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157662, "annualized_volatility": 0.668549, "from_high_reference": -0.542125, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.837667, "fair_value_reference": 7.674203, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.028546, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005208, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.252976, "worst_return": -0.153153, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.090369, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.02342, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.278169, "worst_return": -0.25872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072264, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.114286, "worst_return": -0.43101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 7.113333, 7.991455, 8.98219, 9.156882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.54, "volume": 122264416, "typical_volume": 237873004.05, "trend": 8.929, "fair_value": 7.81243, "relative_strength": -29.556918, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -59.722361, "energy": 82.931544, "activity_lines": [ 6.5, 7.380909, 8.596381, 8.935742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.42, "volume": 126169249, "typical_volume": 207916622.65, "trend": 8.89, "fair_value": 7.763994, "relative_strength": -31.011873, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.579275, "energy": 91.676324, "activity_lines": [ 6.018667, 6.861273, 8.220714, 8.709355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.83, "volume": 108868534, "typical_volume": 186091302.3, "trend": 8.852667, "fair_value": 7.71719, "relative_strength": -24.386744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.288178, "energy": 86.955688, "activity_lines": [ 5.841333, 6.530909, 7.915952, 8.511935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 108732228, "typical_volume": 172154238.1, "trend": 8.837667, "fair_value": 7.674203, "relative_strength": -22.762503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.512332, "energy": 84.946627, "activity_lines": [ 5.896667, 6.357636, 7.674952, 8.344022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }