{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0caa638-fa9b-44ff-9152-5280af99a20e", "symbol": "ONT", "name": "Onterris", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.365, "architecture_energy": 19.0, "architecture_maturity": 35.16, "architecture_confidence": 75.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.59, "rotation_up": 30.48, "upward_expansion": 21.28, "deceleration": 32.95, "rotation_down": 34.43, "downward_expansion": 57.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.22, 19.475636, 18.990333, 19.759957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.51, "trend_reference": 20.820667, "distance_from_trend": -0.207038, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.747179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382739, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -38.139453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.331308, "excess_performance": -0.456933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095632, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050759, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381395, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.331308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.028466, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7394179, "relative_activity": 2.557351, "balance": 1.028466, "dry_up": 1.261567, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176032, "annualized_volatility": 0.82991, "from_high_reference": -0.471172, "from_low_reference": 0.30205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.820667, "fair_value_reference": 26.747179, "structural_low": 12.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.087362, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.055359, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.191791, "worst_return": -0.255407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.035895, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.111059, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.561039, "worst_return": -0.250562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.20433, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.197836, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.455088, "worst_return": -0.240362, "sufficient": true 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.003603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014545, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008874, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.271627, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.211849, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12766, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160224, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 39.5, "volume": 874010, "typical_volume": 958532.2, "trend": 39.605333, "fair_value": 44.459423, "relative_strength": -11.228764, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after 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-2.083982, "energy": 19.836977, "activity_lines": [ 20.565333, 19.259636, 19.213381, 20.195828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.66, "volume": 2663210, "typical_volume": 2616966.65, "trend": 21.277667, "fair_value": 26.994872, "relative_strength": -23.992932, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.031461, "energy": 17.839629, "activity_lines": [ 20.45, 19.521091, 19.167286, 20.077742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.99, "volume": 1969869, "typical_volume": 2606684.25, "trend": 21.148, "fair_value": 26.891795, "relative_strength": -19.494173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.616983, "energy": 13.767705, "activity_lines": [ 20.613333, 19.945273, 19.28281, 20.059183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.51, "volume": 7394179, "typical_volume": 2891343.4, "trend": 20.820667, "fair_value": 26.747179, "relative_strength": -38.139453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.365275, "energy": 18.999694, "activity_lines": [ 19.22, 19.475636, 18.990333, 19.759957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }