{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0cac1df-6ff0-4519-8714-f69154eff8b7", "symbol": "300953", "name": "Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.668, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.793, "architecture_energy": 79.399, "architecture_maturity": 23.652, "architecture_confidence": 85.009, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.26, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 21.1, "deceleration": 34.19, "rotation_down": 75.78, "downward_expansion": 92.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.714666, 111.24509, 128.305148, 130.508005 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 101.919998, "trend_reference": 130.776233, "distance_from_trend": -0.220654, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.069724, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.994396, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.10397, "excess_performance": -0.11137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220654, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034646, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.310725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.504028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.10397, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.462709, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36046234, "relative_activity": 0.970776, "balance": 0.462709, "dry_up": 0.965722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19801, "annualized_volatility": 0.782419, "from_high_reference": -0.45752, "from_low_reference": 0.429436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 130.776233, "fair_value_reference": 68.069724, "structural_low": 83.879997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.288118, "worst_return": -0.096417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.039616, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055854, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099606, "worst_return": -0.020374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.290194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.189621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.706997, "worst_return": -0.126609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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66.972712, "relative_strength": -16.455449, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.965283, "energy": 42.623948, "activity_lines": [ 123.301334, 133.092817, 140.850606, 137.793687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.599998, "volume": 36060087, "typical_volume": 37438157.0, "trend": 131.891772, "fair_value": 67.311918, "relative_strength": -24.137026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.686256, "energy": 64.485977, "activity_lines": [ 110.309333, 123.715483, 136.226895, 135.106973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.059998, "volume": 33987451, "typical_volume": 36528920.3, "trend": 131.372223, "fair_value": 67.648508, "relative_strength": -23.534951, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.307041, "energy": 73.995363, "activity_lines": [ 100.763999, 115.561272, 131.625341, 132.408149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.919998, "volume": 36046234, "typical_volume": 37131352.9, "trend": 130.776233, "fair_value": 68.069724, "relative_strength": -17.994396, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.792854, "energy": 79.39892, "activity_lines": [ 97.714666, 111.24509, 128.305148, 130.508005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }