{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0cc036b-a3a4-402a-9f12-250b13b24723", "symbol": "SGOL", "name": "abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.309, "architecture_energy": 58.339, "architecture_maturity": 71.297, "architecture_confidence": 70.928, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.99, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 51.28, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 681.711345, 677.771281, 709.175098, 739.91714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 700.0, "trend_reference": 771.699998, "distance_from_trend": -0.092912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 544.719872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.285064, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.810048, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.141104, "excess_performance": -0.086438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092912, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022321, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.285064, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234595, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0681, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060448, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.321429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104, "relative_activity": 0.462325, "balance": 0.321429, "dry_up": 3.30629, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032014, "annualized_volatility": 0.303758, "from_high_reference": -0.202879, "from_low_reference": 0.186441 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 771.699998, "fair_value_reference": 544.719872, "structural_low": 625.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.012516, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.088825, "worst_return": -0.050703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027165, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.013606, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.190888, "worst_return": -0.078447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.054971, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.197752, "worst_return": -0.041017, "sufficient": false }, 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"typical_volume": 79.4, "trend": 782.297996, "fair_value": 535.520128, "relative_strength": -6.332384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.444821, "energy": 68.5462, "activity_lines": [ 671.912667, 698.256363, 743.805472, 765.90978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 669.52002, "volume": 2871, "typical_volume": 222.95, "trend": 779.231997, "fair_value": 537.771218, "relative_strength": -10.555706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.08646, "energy": 68.85137, "activity_lines": [ 670.048006, 688.925276, 733.310046, 758.633782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 669.52002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 222.95, "trend": 776.382664, "fair_value": 540.022308, "relative_strength": -10.160788, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.410081, "energy": 68.209505, "activity_lines": [ 669.615344, 681.605825, 723.507382, 751.55559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 669.52002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 219.75, "trend": 773.533331, "fair_value": 542.273398, "relative_strength": -10.820183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.575821, "energy": 66.003491, "activity_lines": [ 670.614681, 676.040555, 714.397479, 744.661226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 700.0, "volume": 104, "typical_volume": 224.95, "trend": 771.699998, "fair_value": 544.719872, "relative_strength": -6.810048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.309275, "energy": 58.338907, "activity_lines": [ 681.711345, 677.771281, 709.175098, 739.91714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }