{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0cd47b8-224b-46e5-924f-f642b2780a0d", "symbol": "VGL", "name": "Vista Group International Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.041, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.426, "architecture_energy": 63.877, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.82, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.72, "rotation_up": 62.5, "upward_expansion": 85.73, "deceleration": 49.36, "rotation_down": 18.43, "downward_expansion": 12.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.095, 2.036182, 1.933643, 1.832774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.21, "trend_reference": 1.738667, "distance_from_trend": 0.271089, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.229583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008783, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.238675, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.435065, "excess_performance": 0.371359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.271089, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052326, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184214, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022387, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.280084, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.435065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.203601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188986, "relative_activity": 0.666147, "balance": 5.203601, "dry_up": 0.364269, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087539, "annualized_volatility": 0.547126, "from_high_reference": -0.311526, "from_low_reference": 0.757455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.738667, "fair_value_reference": 2.229583, "structural_low": 1.2575, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001526, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016156, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.285047, "worst_return": -0.152047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047605, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.39661, "worst_return": -0.138211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062069, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.001376, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.864407, "worst_return": -0.220588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25228, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.161137, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125899, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.021538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.07, "volume": 59919, "typical_volume": 293232.1, "trend": 1.751167, "fair_value": 2.222564, "relative_strength": -2.406079, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.806484, "energy": 57.631647, "activity_lines": [ 2.009667, 1.966909, 1.836, 1.766527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.995, "volume": 86582, "typical_volume": 294487.7, "trend": 1.742, "fair_value": 2.224199, "relative_strength": -4.619305, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.456476, "energy": 49.129876, "activity_lines": [ 2.013667, 1.978, 1.862071, 1.782258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.05, "volume": 77885, "typical_volume": 277466.0, "trend": 1.735, "fair_value": 2.226378, "relative_strength": -3.129417, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.458552, "energy": 53.108895, "activity_lines": [ 2.029333, 1.994182, 1.89131, 1.802129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.21, "volume": 188986, "typical_volume": 283699.95, "trend": 1.738667, "fair_value": 2.229583, "relative_strength": 2.238675, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.426, "energy": 63.877241, "activity_lines": [ 2.095, 2.036182, 1.933643, 1.832774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }