{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0cd9450-18f9-4423-b041-9fa488a0b8b1", "symbol": "BIS", "name": "ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotechnology -2x Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.98, "architecture_energy": 61.412, "architecture_maturity": 37.691, "architecture_confidence": 88.036, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 21.53, "upward_expansion": 9.89, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 59.37, "downward_expansion": 80.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.43454, 13.765814, 14.931101, 15.657097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.699, "trend_reference": 16.430044, "distance_from_trend": -0.227087, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.744404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.55821, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.03821, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.244953, "excess_performance": -0.432407, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227087, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082882, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.55821, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111318, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420382, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.244953, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.25255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17400, "relative_activity": 0.280296, "balance": 1.25255, "dry_up": 0.37196, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096537, "annualized_volatility": 0.416629, "from_high_reference": -0.584437, "from_low_reference": 0.026588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.430044, "fair_value_reference": 28.744404, "structural_low": 12.3701, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.00554, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.035698, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.177879, "worst_return": -0.176618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001757, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.047855, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.251699, "worst_return": -0.283075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.067464, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.165831, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.237925, "worst_return": -0.444082, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 13.2162, "volume": 79265, "typical_volume": 69354.9, "trend": 17.054933, "fair_value": 29.343062, "relative_strength": -44.719621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.984939, "energy": 87.237644, "activity_lines": [ 13.873556, 15.033923, 16.047667, 16.506293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.551, "volume": 26262, "typical_volume": 68562.85, "trend": 16.893332, "fair_value": 29.199579, "relative_strength": -39.566947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.466804, "energy": 86.061152, "activity_lines": [ 13.538431, 14.627746, 15.744321, 16.280233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.8703, "volume": 18275, "typical_volume": 66775.4, "trend": 16.756361, "fair_value": 29.053418, "relative_strength": -35.932904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.863086, "energy": 84.473074, "activity_lines": [ 13.515873, 14.340517, 15.485665, 16.085199 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0235, "volume": 30424, "typical_volume": 65422.45, "trend": 16.601718, "fair_value": 28.90075, "relative_strength": -34.206311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.944153, "energy": 70.553008, "activity_lines": [ 13.698247, 14.146393, 15.261146, 15.908885 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.699, "volume": 17400, "typical_volume": 62077.2, "trend": 16.430044, "fair_value": 28.744404, "relative_strength": -42.03821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.979528, "energy": 61.411777, "activity_lines": [ 13.43454, 13.765814, 14.931101, 15.657097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }