{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0d1b516-0870-48b4-ba12-3806b8046342", "symbol": "ANA", "name": "Acciona, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.726, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -19.883, "architecture_energy": 30.547, "architecture_maturity": 58.476, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.75, "rotation_up": 16.78, "upward_expansion": 45.33, "deceleration": 84.46, "rotation_down": 48.86, "downward_expansion": 34.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 233.46667, 244.347764, 247.569373, 242.004967 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 213.0, "trend_reference": 230.523471, "distance_from_trend": -0.076016, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 147.494936, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.444117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.132663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153846, "excess_performance": 0.029415, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.444117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.41281, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121327, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.378526, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.237573, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1861713, "relative_activity": 4.988275, "balance": 0.237573, "dry_up": 1.736144, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08024, "annualized_volatility": 0.498321, "from_high_reference": -0.226376, "from_low_reference": 0.301161 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.523471, "fair_value_reference": 147.494936, "structural_low": 184.300003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029134, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.007774, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.125957, "worst_return": -0.062666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085344, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.042471, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.157267, "worst_return": -0.102254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075492, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.079716, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.256033, "worst_return": -0.065217, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023897, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100962, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.099053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.365415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", 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251.211317, 242.418963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 238.600006, "volume": 285832, "typical_volume": 311326.75, "trend": 229.806804, "fair_value": 146.914603, "relative_strength": 0.218287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.03827, "energy": 20.77343, "activity_lines": [ 245.713355, 251.604203, 250.66225, 243.089277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 213.0, "volume": 1861713, "typical_volume": 373217.8, "trend": 230.523471, "fair_value": 147.494936, "relative_strength": -12.132663, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.883045, "energy": 30.54717, "activity_lines": [ 233.46667, 244.347764, 247.569373, 242.004967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }