{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0d8359e-7e92-4535-997a-74632ad5806c", "symbol": "XIDD", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Indonesia Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.923, "architecture_energy": 35.539, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.858, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.38, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 24.32, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 31.62, "downward_expansion": 62.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.932417, 8.798091, 9.039899, 9.603384 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.10375, "trend_reference": 10.522625, "distance_from_trend": -0.13484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.915697, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.345793, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.537381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29442, "excess_performance": -0.345655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.345793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439723, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19950, "relative_activity": 1.062128, "balance": 0.439723, "dry_up": 1.755692, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051786, "annualized_volatility": 0.364068, "from_high_reference": -0.366034, "from_low_reference": 0.164535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.522625, "fair_value_reference": 13.915697, "structural_low": 7.8175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.029054, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.01967, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.150271, "worst_return": -0.244868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06896, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.065631, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.163241, "worst_return": -0.246127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038374, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.00567, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184576, "worst_return": -0.002903, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045671, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.078395, "energy": 65.437518, "activity_lines": [ 8.553, 8.635773, 9.359595, 10.108548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.06875, "volume": 35220, "typical_volume": 17700.0, "trend": 10.998792, "fair_value": 14.064944, "relative_strength": -30.063973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.706981, "energy": 57.591676, "activity_lines": [ 8.703167, 8.669864, 9.266821, 9.97393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.84625, "volume": 61921, "typical_volume": 20126.75, "trend": 10.8405, "fair_value": 14.013446, "relative_strength": -31.932886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.469788, "energy": 54.841502, "activity_lines": [ 8.75625, 8.686841, 9.170673, 9.835056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.8225, "volume": 14818, "typical_volume": 20484.9, "trend": 10.676667, "fair_value": 13.963061, "relative_strength": -32.220756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.864709, "energy": 47.991124, "activity_lines": [ 8.8065, 8.715614, 9.08647, 9.704863 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.10375, "volume": 19950, "typical_volume": 18783.05, "trend": 10.522625, "fair_value": 13.915697, "relative_strength": -29.537381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.923206, "energy": 35.539239, "activity_lines": [ 8.932417, 8.798091, 9.039899, 9.603384 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }