{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0e3b594-95db-46b2-a181-239b944e63b2", "symbol": "301128", "name": "ShenZhen QiangRui Precision Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.33, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.55, "architecture_energy": 35.763, "architecture_maturity": 42.073, "architecture_confidence": 47.019, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.42, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 17.18, "deceleration": 69.24, "rotation_down": 64.76, "downward_expansion": 42.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.882669, 124.267274, 132.127385, 125.558048 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 114.330002, "trend_reference": 113.240011, "distance_from_trend": 0.009625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.790067, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.392338, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 23.343769, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.516519, "excess_performance": 0.50912, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27093, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.392338, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.202399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.233438, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.496678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.516519, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731335, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35223893, "relative_activity": 0.997436, "balance": 0.731335, "dry_up": 0.768306, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.232462, "annualized_volatility": 0.869871, "from_high_reference": -0.40391, "from_low_reference": 1.938118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.240011, "fair_value_reference": 47.790067, "structural_low": 68.168172, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.050657, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.001784, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.202311, "worst_return": -0.284936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.131412, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054071, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.544247, "worst_return": 0.069073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.497606, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.370268, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.14064, "worst_return": -0.112649, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.701387, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.521931, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 1.139439, "worst_return": 0.263336, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.268976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.384237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070251, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074313, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.555079, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 146.100006, "volume": 27949961, "typical_volume": 37801104.05, "trend": 108.160965, "fair_value": 45.575548, "relative_strength": 57.614511, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.962134, "energy": 47.427096, "activity_lines": [ 156.302001, 153.469429, 141.56453, 127.155596 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 110.5, "volume": 22765724, "typical_volume": 37631110.9, "trend": 109.846829, "fair_value": 46.160539, "relative_strength": 28.9188, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.960008, "energy": 16.190945, "activity_lines": [ 139.435334, 146.351634, 140.01103, 127.306501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.43, "volume": 26050090, "typical_volume": 37638260.2, "trend": 111.246691, "fair_value": 46.696731, "relative_strength": 16.331703, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.198081, "energy": 18.634926, "activity_lines": [ 123.104668, 138.051273, 137.448846, 126.76348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 90.050003, "volume": 24489424, "typical_volume": 37149610.1, "trend": 111.8175, "fair_value": 47.16029, "relative_strength": 3.735047, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.303339, "energy": 40.376231, "activity_lines": [ 108.765335, 128.520728, 133.666779, 125.395952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 114.330002, "volume": 35223893, "typical_volume": 35314435.95, "trend": 113.240011, "fair_value": 47.790067, "relative_strength": 23.343769, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.550397, "energy": 35.763445, "activity_lines": [ 106.882669, 124.267274, 132.127385, 125.558048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }