{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0e3b93e-0acb-439e-ab59-3b89b2863dd6", "symbol": "002428", "name": "Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.671, "architecture_energy": 27.151, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.325, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.14, "rotation_up": 23.53, "upward_expansion": 54.03, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 41.17, "downward_expansion": 22.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.520001, 89.698392, 88.447891, 80.247521 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 100.080002, "trend_reference": 68.221767, "distance_from_trend": 0.466981, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.07948, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.695787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 96.330496, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.848037, "excess_performance": 1.840637, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.466981, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.461895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.695787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.512376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.963305, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245325, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.848037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.577572, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 343611898, "relative_activity": 0.990648, "balance": 1.577572, "dry_up": 0.888467, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191299, "annualized_volatility": 1.064315, "from_high_reference": -0.246655, "from_low_reference": 3.709647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68.221767, "fair_value_reference": 27.07948, "structural_low": 33.310001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005065, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000252, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.30839, "worst_return": -0.141026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027523, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020259, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.258145, "worst_return": -0.113582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009507, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015803, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.081344, "worst_return": -0.195386, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00863, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008186, 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96.009262, 87.443886, 76.932551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.080002, "volume": 334722849, "typical_volume": 337603175.45, "trend": 64.741434, "fair_value": 26.201142, "relative_strength": 66.292, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.104052, "energy": 21.798848, "activity_lines": [ 88.132584, 92.976397, 87.581682, 77.902717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.949997, "volume": 302998686, "typical_volume": 338301775.3, "trend": 65.9441, "fair_value": 26.528888, "relative_strength": 42.266297, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.734964, "energy": 19.635918, "activity_lines": [ 78.520667, 88.142468, 86.493334, 78.045205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 100.080002, "volume": 343611898, "typical_volume": 346855694.15, "trend": 68.221767, "fair_value": 27.07948, "relative_strength": 96.330496, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.67093, "energy": 27.151482, "activity_lines": [ 83.520001, 89.698392, 88.447891, 80.247521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }