{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0e937a4-47e0-4215-9faf-080fad9af713", "symbol": "APOG", "name": "Apogee Enterprises Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.194, "architecture_energy": 29.295, "architecture_maturity": 30.26, "architecture_confidence": 60.525, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.09, "rotation_up": 38.47, "upward_expansion": 59.07, "deceleration": 66.72, "rotation_down": 21.27, "downward_expansion": 13.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.255324, 41.299376, 39.821543, 38.772726 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.52, "trend_reference": 37.985914, "distance_from_trend": 0.145688, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.48168, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.943484, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049383, "excess_performance": -0.13807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.145688, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044753, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150434, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.205118, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049383, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.466506, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 824082, "relative_activity": 0.661255, "balance": 1.466506, "dry_up": 0.765876, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097857, "annualized_volatility": 0.519773, "from_high_reference": -0.138687, "from_low_reference": 0.436061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.985914, "fair_value_reference": 48.48168, "structural_low": 30.972494, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024755, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.021863, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.153013, "worst_return": -0.239148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.065034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.046684, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.25612, "worst_return": -0.35166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159987, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026357, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.274142, "worst_return": -0.41308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059273, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.1415, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106511, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.185365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011227, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09899, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 46.448615, "volume": 814004, "typical_volume": 788460.7, "trend": 41.49975, "fair_value": 36.910383, "relative_strength": -2.858325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"close": 38.549861, "volume": 1330171, "typical_volume": 1291331.85, "trend": 37.398844, "fair_value": 48.589558, "relative_strength": -14.029516, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.669039, "energy": 56.737341, "activity_lines": [ 41.431004, 40.245258, 38.322049, 37.824389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.03, "volume": 1274026, "typical_volume": 1320428.3, "trend": 37.492218, "fair_value": 48.576121, "relative_strength": -4.096081, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.400675, "energy": 39.033329, "activity_lines": [ 41.223631, 40.615409, 38.70554, 38.058658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.74, "volume": 910666, "typical_volume": 1331532.45, "trend": 37.603192, "fair_value": 48.55075, "relative_strength": -2.778152, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.019246, "energy": 21.17782, "activity_lines": [ 40.841635, 40.848125, 39.054207, 38.268192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.6, "volume": 809087, "typical_volume": 1333125.95, "trend": 37.696533, "fair_value": 48.506185, "relative_strength": -5.597597, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.89914, "energy": 17.534057, "activity_lines": [ 40.095827, 40.751205, 39.266883, 38.397018 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.52, "volume": 824082, "typical_volume": 1246239.15, "trend": 37.985914, "fair_value": 48.48168, "relative_strength": -0.943484, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.19382, "energy": 29.294941, "activity_lines": [ 41.255324, 41.299376, 39.821543, 38.772726 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }