{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0e9cee3-8116-4827-85bb-6b349cccd58b", "symbol": "MELIN", "name": "MercadoLibre, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 83.411, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.536, "architecture_energy": 44.651, "architecture_maturity": 4.351, "architecture_confidence": 54.597, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.12, "rotation_up": 65.82, "upward_expansion": 53.18, "deceleration": 17.35, "rotation_down": 15.11, "downward_expansion": 23.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 31805.70625, 31166.190234, 30344.021317, 30455.318847 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 31108.390625, "trend_reference": 31245.376042, "distance_from_trend": -0.004384, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34519.386055, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098814, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.830699, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076902, "excess_performance": -0.022236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004384, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066769, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098814, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070172, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.223913, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540971, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8267, "relative_activity": 1.969459, "balance": 0.540971, "dry_up": 0.844054, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054586, "annualized_volatility": 0.3655, "from_high_reference": -0.327822, "from_low_reference": 0.203419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31245.376042, "fair_value_reference": 34519.386055, "structural_low": 25850.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01578, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01563, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.052243, "worst_return": -0.213917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.340616, "worst_return": -0.104775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.096136, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.444104, "worst_return": -0.389316, "sufficient": false 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151245, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098659, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002113, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": 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"volume": 3041, "typical_volume": 3894.2, "trend": 31513.663021, "fair_value": 34465.35791, "relative_strength": -10.699056, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.328194, "energy": 45.170098, "activity_lines": [ 32049.31875, 30995.65451, 30242.619782, 30481.465453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31108.390625, "volume": 8267, "typical_volume": 4197.6, "trend": 31245.376042, "fair_value": 34519.386055, "relative_strength": -13.830699, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.535735, "energy": 44.65053, "activity_lines": [ 31805.70625, 31166.190234, 30344.021317, 30455.318847 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }