{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0ef71e6-39f5-457e-8261-2c6b5b9bf00d", "symbol": "EUE", "name": "iShares Core EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF EUR (Dist)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.718, "architecture_energy": 69.538, "architecture_maturity": 32.759, "architecture_confidence": 82.745, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 62.61, "upward_expansion": 85.89, "deceleration": 53.55, "rotation_down": 23.06, "downward_expansion": 12.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.496667, 65.023818, 63.58429, 62.411573 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.050003, "trend_reference": 61.279424, "distance_from_trend": 0.094168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.315224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.30663, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.674201, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109741, "excess_performance": -0.06115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094168, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039205, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.30663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026742, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036395, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109741, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.933703, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153803, "relative_activity": 0.980948, "balance": 2.933703, "dry_up": 0.727839, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023866, "annualized_volatility": 0.168624, "from_high_reference": -0.005193, "from_low_reference": 0.264777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.279424, "fair_value_reference": 51.315224, "structural_low": 54.228317, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.001106, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": -0.007075, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.105824, "worst_return": -0.088075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024926, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130337, "worst_return": -0.061257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07286, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.009844, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.115916, "worst_return": -0.165665, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 60.617667, "fair_value": 50.848374, "relative_strength": -4.070254, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.828949, "energy": 70.386748, "activity_lines": [ 64.489999, 63.914741, 62.308039, 61.483643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.540001, "volume": 95324, "typical_volume": 173201.85, "trend": 60.842339, "fair_value": 50.991126, "relative_strength": -2.977562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.082678, "energy": 60.446252, "activity_lines": [ 64.490666, 64.168182, 62.661357, 61.736697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.309998, "volume": 81115, "typical_volume": 158902.2, "trend": 61.057089, "fair_value": 51.147201, "relative_strength": -2.453842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.683835, "energy": 54.303545, "activity_lines": [ 64.750666, 64.471454, 63.058303, 62.024933 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.050003, "volume": 153803, "typical_volume": 156790.15, "trend": 61.279424, "fair_value": 51.315224, "relative_strength": -2.674201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.718118, "energy": 69.537676, "activity_lines": [ 65.496667, 65.023818, 63.58429, 62.411573 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }