{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0f02a20-deb1-4d28-a212-adc9418e0f04", "symbol": "5859", "name": "Farglory Life Insurance Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.02, "architecture_energy": 18.69, "architecture_maturity": 64.355, "architecture_confidence": 75.522, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.37, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 18.43, "deceleration": 46.15, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 57.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.896667, 13.8, 13.968571, 14.351183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 14.838333, "distance_from_trend": -0.063237, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.499343, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.02968, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.882903, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128527, "excess_performance": -0.569899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063237, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.02968, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055542, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.338829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784462, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 157941, "relative_activity": 0.261933, "balance": 0.784462, "dry_up": 0.467471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063088, "annualized_volatility": 0.161522, "from_high_reference": -0.149847, "from_low_reference": 0.069231 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.838333, "fair_value_reference": 13.499343, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003247, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.026512, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.221198, "worst_return": -0.054399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042787, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.003207, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241525, "worst_return": -0.03425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.083699, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058996, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.644068, "worst_return": 0.02644, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.4, "volume": 679528, "typical_volume": 657181.65, "trend": 15.185, "fair_value": 13.373697, "relative_strength": -39.040925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.096502, "energy": 47.055788, "activity_lines": [ 13.653333, 13.774545, 14.351429, 14.740753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.4, "volume": 323514, "typical_volume": 648086.6, "trend": 15.1, "fair_value": 13.397567, "relative_strength": -34.453666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.603797, "energy": 47.586848, "activity_lines": [ 13.54, 13.678182, 14.214048, 14.625591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.05, "volume": 325540, "typical_volume": 641299.25, "trend": 15.036667, "fair_value": 13.423464, "relative_strength": -32.12048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.043975, "energy": 37.76266, "activity_lines": [ 13.676667, 13.723636, 14.150476, 14.557849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.75, "volume": 446722, "typical_volume": 631791.8, "trend": 14.966667, "fair_value": 13.447706, "relative_strength": -32.042306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.414871, "energy": 31.653773, "activity_lines": [ 13.72, 13.719091, 14.066667, 14.474839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.05, "volume": 197306, "typical_volume": 621833.85, "trend": 14.9, "fair_value": 13.474406, "relative_strength": -31.511243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.120678, "energy": 24.086996, "activity_lines": [ 13.84, 13.776364, 14.020238, 14.415699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.9, "volume": 157941, "typical_volume": 602982.9, "trend": 14.838333, "fair_value": 13.499343, "relative_strength": -33.882903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.020182, "energy": 18.689885, "activity_lines": [ 13.896667, 13.8, 13.968571, 14.351183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }