{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0f57010-d7d9-4d55-b081-7ffc13c2e52e", "symbol": "GERN", "name": "Geron Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -3.139, "architecture_energy": 7.701, "architecture_maturity": 20.937, "architecture_confidence": 66.487, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.77, "rotation_up": 33.81, "upward_expansion": 29.34, "deceleration": 42.01, "rotation_down": 21.11, "downward_expansion": 46.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.413333, 1.385091, 1.369429, 1.408882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.48, "trend_reference": 1.448667, "distance_from_trend": 0.021629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.341667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367972, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.788606, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.03268, "excess_performance": -0.220133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020427, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367972, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075429, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.067886, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108764, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.03268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.781226, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94197850, "relative_activity": 1.343387, "balance": 0.781226, "dry_up": 0.759977, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120577, "annualized_volatility": 0.593291, "from_high_reference": -0.263682, "from_low_reference": 0.423077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.448667, "fair_value_reference": 2.341667, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.048837, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.688776, "worst_return": -0.10687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064286, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.151327, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.563981, "worst_return": -0.173611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097153, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.071733, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.009479, "worst_return": -0.680556, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.641665, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.626558, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.695652, "worst_return": 0.587678, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.360119, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002433, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.636132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116788, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.881401, "energy": 18.082563, "activity_lines": [ 1.371333, 1.312364, 1.374238, 1.418043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.44, "volume": 36661530, "typical_volume": 75533406.5, "trend": 1.443333, "fair_value": 2.373526, "relative_strength": -6.18112, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.910456, "energy": 21.325942, "activity_lines": [ 1.412, 1.338364, 1.374667, 1.418065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.42, "volume": 23604478, "typical_volume": 72231402.7, "trend": 1.445, "fair_value": 2.362244, "relative_strength": -5.854075, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.914318, "energy": 22.233239, "activity_lines": [ 1.426667, 1.359818, 1.374333, 1.416559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.29, "volume": 58693308, "typical_volume": 70461858.8, "trend": 1.444, "fair_value": 2.351538, "relative_strength": -14.758201, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.712437, "energy": 21.150022, "activity_lines": [ 1.387333, 1.355273, 1.362143, 1.406559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.48, "volume": 94197850, "typical_volume": 70119641.6, "trend": 1.448667, "fair_value": 2.341667, "relative_strength": -6.788606, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.13873, "energy": 7.700969, "activity_lines": [ 1.413333, 1.385091, 1.369429, 1.408882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }