{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0fbcd88-0f46-47fd-917f-27aead8d99f2", "symbol": "EQR", "name": "Equity Residential", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.103, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 42.848, "architecture_energy": 28.659, "architecture_maturity": 59.384, "architecture_confidence": 43.338, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.8, "rotation_up": 38.6, "upward_expansion": 64.84, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 24.83, "downward_expansion": 14.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 67.428, 67.595936, 66.514826, 65.226936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 67.07, "trend_reference": 63.828072, "distance_from_trend": 0.050792, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 62.265378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.077164, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.605609, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062362, "excess_performance": -0.063263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050792, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041534, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.077164, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022663, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062362, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11278163, "relative_activity": 0.808792, "balance": 0.724812, "dry_up": 1.050093, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04443, "annualized_volatility": 0.199519, "from_high_reference": -0.061958, "from_low_reference": 0.178988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.828072, "fair_value_reference": 62.265378, "structural_low": 56.887793, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.007376, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.00168, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.082834, "worst_return": -0.166721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.026914, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008293, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.182034, "worst_return": -0.188722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.060948, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.031401, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.26463, "worst_return": -0.191338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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18074768, "typical_volume": 13730683.0, "trend": 63.411363, "fair_value": 62.162902, "relative_strength": 0.578622, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.136811, "energy": 59.678282, "activity_lines": [ 68.580949, 67.735041, 66.066588, 64.80594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.45, "volume": 17116232, "typical_volume": 14021498.4, "trend": 63.583198, "fair_value": 62.215068, "relative_strength": -2.379707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.871091, "energy": 39.570767, "activity_lines": [ 67.86, 67.617521, 66.278257, 65.001981 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.07, "volume": 11278163, "typical_volume": 13944458.75, "trend": 63.828072, "fair_value": 62.265378, "relative_strength": -4.605609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.848195, "energy": 28.658789, "activity_lines": [ 67.428, 67.595936, 66.514826, 65.226936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }