{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a0fbf404-0cf5-436c-b59c-62ca3996d8dd", "symbol": "SF", "name": "Stifel Financial Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.206, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 47.845, "architecture_energy": 69.575, "architecture_maturity": 11.211, "architecture_confidence": 63.324, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.59, "rotation_up": 75.92, "upward_expansion": 64.52, "deceleration": 20.99, "rotation_down": 16.12, "downward_expansion": 22.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.271333, 78.024474, 75.922525, 75.544284 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 83.09, "trend_reference": 76.219963, "distance_from_trend": 0.090134, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 62.963085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.11396, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.036753, "excess_performance": -0.162378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029102, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054377, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04114, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06276, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.036753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.863954, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4430306, "relative_activity": 0.673868, "balance": 1.863954, "dry_up": 0.894392, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051901, "annualized_volatility": 0.29375, "from_high_reference": -0.066278, "from_low_reference": 0.230969 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.219963, "fair_value_reference": 62.963085, "structural_low": 67.499678, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012478, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01024, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.031984, "worst_return": -0.090885, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.00637, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00884, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070274, "worst_return": -0.10683, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.191801, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.093762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213071, "worst_return": -0.065436, "sufficient": false }, { 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.91, "volume": 6851036, "typical_volume": 6760846.0, "trend": 76.316834, "fair_value": 62.684202, "relative_strength": -1.10866, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.650619, "energy": 61.564948, "activity_lines": [ 79.525333, 76.438194, 75.112067, 75.107305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 83.09, "volume": 4430306, "typical_volume": 6574442.5, "trend": 76.219963, "fair_value": 62.963085, "relative_strength": -4.11396, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.845386, "energy": 69.574955, "activity_lines": [ 81.271333, 78.024474, 75.922525, 75.544284 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }