{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a10e2ecf-da33-49ca-8a7d-4a258f5395b8", "symbol": "2380", "name": "Avision Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 59.28, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.761, "architecture_energy": 29.99, "architecture_maturity": 6.52, "architecture_confidence": 63.628, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.13, "rotation_up": 20.63, "upward_expansion": 11.78, "deceleration": 50.78, "rotation_down": 54.51, "downward_expansion": 51.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.413333, 19.759786, 20.451693, 20.463348 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.6, "trend_reference": 20.237452, "distance_from_trend": -0.031499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.450731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.086278, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.902183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110861, "excess_performance": -0.234871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048447, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.086278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008736, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289022, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055107, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110861, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938367, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 411402, "relative_activity": 1.028471, "balance": 0.938367, "dry_up": 0.698622, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097507, "annualized_volatility": 0.676195, "from_high_reference": -0.260436, "from_low_reference": 0.204667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.237452, "fair_value_reference": 21.450731, "structural_low": 16.848547, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.009724, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021845, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.126, "worst_return": -0.154812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028708, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.055606, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.241841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.004785, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.162825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.266975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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20.611171, 20.793664, 20.613052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.0, "volume": 233477, "typical_volume": 414243.3, "trend": 20.223492, "fair_value": 21.667762, "relative_strength": -30.602464, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.206791, "energy": 40.32779, "activity_lines": [ 19.153333, 20.239894, 20.617753, 20.539055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.65, "volume": 240213, "typical_volume": 400935.05, "trend": 20.199971, "fair_value": 21.556162, "relative_strength": -30.314119, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.734175, "energy": 39.927759, "activity_lines": [ 19.28, 19.99567, 20.533788, 20.502055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 19.6, "volume": 411402, "typical_volume": 400013.35, "trend": 20.237452, "fair_value": 21.450731, "relative_strength": -28.902183, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.760589, "energy": 29.990002, "activity_lines": [ 19.413333, 19.759786, 20.451693, 20.463348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }