{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a10e69f5-da27-411a-bedf-a77c18122c2f", "symbol": "300144", "name": "Songcheng Performance Development Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.3, "architecture_energy": 44.733, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.239, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.61, "rotation_up": 27.62, "upward_expansion": 19.89, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 39.05, "downward_expansion": 67.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.080667, 6.034614, 6.312493, 6.698012 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.14, "trend_reference": 7.229841, "distance_from_trend": -0.150742, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.878145, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.308414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.892027, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.280188, "excess_performance": -0.287587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150742, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.308414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280188, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.47278, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 147546776, "relative_activity": 1.219543, "balance": 0.47278, "dry_up": 1.613431, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062732, "annualized_volatility": 0.201241, "from_high_reference": -0.384152, "from_low_reference": 0.077193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.229841, "fair_value_reference": 8.878145, "structural_low": 5.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.002401, "positive_rate": 0.459459, "directional_follow_through": 0.513514, "median_excess_return": 0.006813, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.336634, "worst_return": -0.237046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.045189, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.03331, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.196667, "worst_return": -0.236492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.122096, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.075817, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.199253, "worst_return": -0.285024, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 5.83, "volume": 220523270, "typical_volume": 118062556.65, "trend": 7.364174, "fair_value": 8.956264, "relative_strength": -26.585703, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.965711, "energy": 66.306791, "activity_lines": [ 5.889333, 5.99363, 6.421733, 6.84139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.3, "volume": 213322567, "typical_volume": 120483631.15, "trend": 7.298175, "fair_value": 8.917563, "relative_strength": -18.659047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.483717, "energy": 53.5566, "activity_lines": [ 6.03, 6.026092, 6.370422, 6.772733 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.14, "volume": 147546776, "typical_volume": 120985279.65, "trend": 7.229841, "fair_value": 8.878145, "relative_strength": -23.892027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.300086, "energy": 44.732635, "activity_lines": [ 6.080667, 6.034614, 6.312493, 6.698012 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }