{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a11b757e-9618-446b-9606-49f58b981df9", "symbol": "XMK9", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan UCITS ETF 4C EUR Hedged", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.455, "architecture_energy": 31.842, "architecture_maturity": 58.149, "architecture_confidence": 80.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.4, "rotation_up": 39.91, "upward_expansion": 68.16, "deceleration": 82.61, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 15.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.903599, 60.048218, 59.202257, 58.075406 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 60.919998, "trend_reference": 56.709066, "distance_from_trend": 0.074255, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.234231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.442432, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.743114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100195, "excess_performance": 0.035555, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074255, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06422, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.442432, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0062, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.067431, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.804411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 77307, "relative_activity": 1.009945, "balance": 3.804411, "dry_up": 0.920296, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033181, "annualized_volatility": 0.192404, "from_high_reference": -0.017895, "from_low_reference": 0.397536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.709066, "fair_value_reference": 42.234231, "structural_low": 50.799999, "invalidation": "A 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86571.65, "trend": 55.547333, "fair_value": 41.490051, "relative_strength": 14.564799, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.753413, "energy": 80.401337, "activity_lines": [ 60.769866, 60.033491, 58.258619, 57.147281 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.306, "volume": 68197, "typical_volume": 83873.2, "trend": 55.817466, "fair_value": 41.668917, "relative_strength": 9.932463, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.168902, "energy": 49.121206, "activity_lines": [ 60.009333, 59.849672, 58.399238, 57.32526 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.063999, "volume": 58986, "typical_volume": 81969.5, "trend": 56.147533, "fair_value": 41.855711, "relative_strength": 11.390761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.290739, "energy": 40.986561, "activity_lines": [ 59.8884, 59.963854, 58.702762, 57.59923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.046001, "volume": 77289, "typical_volume": 77948.05, "trend": 56.437733, "fair_value": 42.039942, "relative_strength": 6.726042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.880894, "energy": 30.179517, "activity_lines": [ 59.544133, 59.845564, 58.878171, 57.786228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.919998, "volume": 77307, "typical_volume": 76545.75, "trend": 56.709066, "fair_value": 42.234231, "relative_strength": 6.743114, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.454564, "energy": 31.842262, "activity_lines": [ 59.903599, 60.048218, 59.202257, 58.075406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }