{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a11dbcf5-9f75-4f02-bd4e-39d90fe20abe", "symbol": "000600", "name": "HCIG Energy Investment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.063, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.199, "architecture_energy": 26.726, "architecture_maturity": 11.211, "architecture_confidence": 54.884, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.0, "rotation_up": 21.54, "upward_expansion": 9.7, "deceleration": 55.35, "rotation_down": 51.81, "downward_expansion": 46.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.528, 8.728182, 9.257226, 9.329483 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.74, "trend_reference": 9.304507, "distance_from_trend": -0.06067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.65834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.018105, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001145, "excess_performance": -0.006254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028449, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31264, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030181, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001145, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.538212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 142014951, "relative_activity": 0.724518, "balance": 1.538212, "dry_up": 1.019033, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135134, "annualized_volatility": 0.560816, "from_high_reference": -0.327175, "from_low_reference": 0.268492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.304507, "fair_value_reference": 6.65834, "structural_low": 7.66, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058627, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037852, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.030249, "worst_return": -0.097701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.071895, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026706, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.017241, "worst_return": -0.113903, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038526, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.108194, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061002, "worst_return": 0.003831, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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196012989.65, "trend": 9.304507, "fair_value": 6.65834, "relative_strength": -3.018105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.1987, "energy": 26.726255, "activity_lines": [ 8.528, 8.728182, 9.257226, 9.329483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }