{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1262d61-f087-4cea-9f6e-0f94fe3a87f2", "symbol": "PLAS3", "name": "Plascar Participa\u00e7\u00f5es Industriais S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.899, "architecture_energy": 67.26, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.573, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 58.48, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.496667, 2.529273, 2.665333, 2.964516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.59, "trend_reference": 3.451333, "distance_from_trend": -0.249565, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.662372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.542595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.840404, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.43326, "excess_performance": -0.376212, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249565, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.542595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007655, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388404, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107315, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.43326, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.59375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.3003, "balance": 0.59375, "dry_up": 0.487988, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048411, "annualized_volatility": 0.511405, "from_high_reference": -0.528233, "from_low_reference": 0.116379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.451333, "fair_value_reference": 5.662372, "structural_low": 2.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.018182, "positive_rate": 0.297297, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": -0.027312, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.395349, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.065218, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.149637, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.1625, "worst_return": -0.33584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.278484, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.18875, "worst_return": -0.415385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.060425, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.20976, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.102662, "worst_return": -0.512821, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044006, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.185938, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.140684, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.127273, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.172973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044828, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.086081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002004, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031128, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083151, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.350877, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.6, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1295.0, "trend": 8.696667, "fair_value": 9.103846, "relative_strength": -19.982776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": 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3.656238, 3.973978 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 2.87, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 4150.0, "trend": 4.258333, "fair_value": 6.073846, "relative_strength": -45.330242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.085566, "energy": 87.712596, "activity_lines": [ 2.868, 3.001091, 3.539714, 3.880258 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 2.93, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 4135.0, "trend": 4.189333, "fair_value": 6.034872, "relative_strength": -42.463627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.169873, "energy": 66.116111, "activity_lines": [ 2.89, 2.945636, 3.439, 3.794559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 2.93, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3615.0, "trend": 4.120667, "fair_value": 5.995321, "relative_strength": -39.848033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.854448, "energy": 88.131861, "activity_lines": [ 2.708667, 2.777273, 3.061333, 3.442559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3125.0, "trend": 3.846667, "fair_value": 5.84109, "relative_strength": -43.5848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.910949, "energy": 86.631184, "activity_lines": [ 2.670667, 2.747455, 2.985619, 3.360925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.32, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 3195.0, "trend": 3.769, "fair_value": 5.805962, "relative_strength": -50.699689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.168988, "energy": 98.568674, "activity_lines": [ 2.541333, 2.661273, 2.887476, 3.26243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.5, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 3285.0, "trend": 3.700667, "fair_value": 5.771987, "relative_strength": -44.645511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.316419, "energy": 89.78099, "activity_lines": [ 2.512667, 2.617636, 2.817619, 3.180559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.46, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 3350.0, "trend": 3.616333, "fair_value": 5.735833, "relative_strength": -44.633114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.038387, "energy": 89.179163, "activity_lines": [ 2.480667, 2.573273, 2.753524, 3.100516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.45, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 3420.0, "trend": 3.531667, "fair_value": 5.700256, "relative_strength": -44.932252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.647057, "energy": 87.335381, "activity_lines": [ 2.458667, 2.534727, 2.697476, 3.025269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.59, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 3330.0, "trend": 3.451333, "fair_value": 5.662372, "relative_strength": -38.840404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.899012, "energy": 67.260039, "activity_lines": [ 2.496667, 2.529273, 2.665333, 2.964516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }