{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a12ba608-e1ab-433e-80d4-76e46c9335a9", "symbol": "ERIC", "name": "Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson B ADR", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.537, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.693, "architecture_energy": 63.986, "architecture_maturity": 13.57, "architecture_confidence": 70.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.08, "rotation_up": 16.59, "upward_expansion": 22.45, "deceleration": 43.47, "rotation_down": 69.44, "downward_expansion": 61.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.933333, 10.370909, 11.106273, 11.230543 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 11.210857, "distance_from_trend": -0.094628, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.628835, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.330478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.463975, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.077863, "excess_performance": -0.265317, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.330478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189035, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671027, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50066848, "relative_activity": 0.894821, "balance": 0.671027, "dry_up": 1.477977, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094725, "annualized_volatility": 0.346863, "from_high_reference": -0.26289, "from_low_reference": 0.403384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.210857, "fair_value_reference": 7.628835, "structural_low": 9.275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048569, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.011835, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.12549, "worst_return": -0.113759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.288235, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.14027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417721, "worst_return": -0.093678, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.517481, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.391994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.695645, "worst_return": -0.142606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157767, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005291, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016842, "active": false 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54943400.6, "trend": 11.164917, "fair_value": 7.557634, "relative_strength": -14.587465, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.314771, "energy": 66.150438, "activity_lines": [ 10.171333, 10.858, 11.39466, 11.384382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.81, "volume": 88256642, "typical_volume": 56765965.5, "trend": 11.17959, "fair_value": 7.591917, "relative_strength": -10.944596, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.63721, "energy": 66.231408, "activity_lines": [ 9.957333, 10.55, 11.230769, 11.296968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.15, "volume": 50066848, "typical_volume": 55951804.25, "trend": 11.210857, "fair_value": 7.628835, "relative_strength": -12.463975, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.693011, "energy": 63.986312, "activity_lines": [ 9.933333, 10.370909, 11.106273, 11.230543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }