{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1340aea-df3a-4a17-9086-08927b9061d4", "symbol": "NFGAB", "name": "Nordic Flanges Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -22.839, "architecture_energy": 55.808, "architecture_maturity": 33.931, "architecture_confidence": 60.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.61, "rotation_up": 14.01, "upward_expansion": 53.99, "deceleration": 66.31, "rotation_down": 52.53, "downward_expansion": 45.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.306666, 22.6, 23.624762, 22.304516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.0, "trend_reference": 19.77, "distance_from_trend": 0.011634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.187372, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.263138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.754386, "excess_performance": 0.692892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042352, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060511, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.162631, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.682175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.754386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.380519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1016, "relative_activity": 0.086464, "balance": 0.380519, "dry_up": 0.14312, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074615, "annualized_volatility": 1.105156, "from_high_reference": -0.411765, "from_low_reference": 2.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.77, "fair_value_reference": 19.187372, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023256, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.01541, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.635514, "worst_return": -0.170792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.116331, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.122248, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.052174, "worst_return": -0.182432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.381168, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.359091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.292398, "worst_return": -0.469939, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.17931, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105691, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067797, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.843478, "active": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.728763, "energy": 32.738744, "activity_lines": [ 24.466667, 24.72, 24.070476, 21.646882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.799999, "volume": 2626, "typical_volume": 12872.65, "trend": 18.83, "fair_value": 20.040577, "relative_strength": 43.02611, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.29427, "energy": 30.90537, "activity_lines": [ 23.786666, 24.363636, 24.158095, 21.927097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.4, "volume": 119, "typical_volume": 12737.0, "trend": 19.223333, "fair_value": 19.76109, "relative_strength": 42.759303, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.268466, "energy": 20.068861, "activity_lines": [ 23.52, 24.163636, 24.249524, 22.221936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.0, "volume": 2966, "typical_volume": 12407.3, "trend": 19.496667, "fair_value": 19.475833, "relative_strength": 19.423982, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.0888, "energy": 26.800209, "activity_lines": [ 22.24, 23.349091, 23.958571, 22.272043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.0, "volume": 1016, "typical_volume": 11750.6, "trend": 19.77, "fair_value": 19.187372, "relative_strength": 16.263138, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -22.838886, "energy": 55.80804, "activity_lines": [ 21.306666, 22.6, 23.624762, 22.304516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }