{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1360094-1b11-4992-860f-1718da992f3e", "symbol": "I88", "name": "INFINI RES FPO [I88]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.117, "architecture_energy": 64.894, "architecture_maturity": 69.98, "architecture_confidence": 91.015, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.97, "rotation_up": 21.18, "upward_expansion": 14.22, "deceleration": 39.71, "rotation_down": 58.19, "downward_expansion": 87.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.113333, 0.117, 0.131524, 0.139478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.12, "trend_reference": 0.158083, "distance_from_trend": -0.240907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.290187, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.586473, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.2903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.510204, "excess_performance": -0.57391, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231673, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.586473, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09064, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.472903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.209547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.510204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 784149, "relative_activity": 1.470177, "balance": 1.408435, "dry_up": 0.988494, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157051, "annualized_volatility": 1.072261, "from_high_reference": -0.842105, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.158083, "fair_value_reference": 0.290187, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.108557, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069657, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.76, "worst_return": -0.238095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.591724, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.59679, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.08, "worst_return": 0.103448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.36, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.337708, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.36, "worst_return": 1.36, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.172414, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-01-19", "close": 0.34, "volume": 15223661, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-01-26", "close": 0.305, "volume": 4781940, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-02-02", "close": 0.3, "volume": 2429764, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.854368, "energy": 53.353855, "activity_lines": [ 0.119333, 0.126818, 0.140619, 0.150505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.105, "volume": 704864, "typical_volume": 547649.8, "trend": 0.168917, "fair_value": 0.292841, "relative_strength": -51.897898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.593842, "energy": 60.24754, "activity_lines": [ 0.113667, 0.121364, 0.136762, 0.146059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 607094, "typical_volume": 562393.4, "trend": 0.163083, "fair_value": 0.291466, "relative_strength": -50.473139, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.941998, "energy": 72.952881, "activity_lines": [ 0.111667, 0.117818, 0.133595, 0.142258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.12, "volume": 784149, "typical_volume": 533370.6, "trend": 0.158083, "fair_value": 0.290187, "relative_strength": -47.2903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.117129, "energy": 64.893518, "activity_lines": [ 0.113333, 0.117, 0.131524, 0.139478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }