{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a13ca674-9f91-4a9e-83fe-e84bb90cb2a7", "symbol": "CIW", "name": "Clime Investment Management Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.63, "architecture_energy": 30.67, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.255, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.3, "rotation_up": 43.43, "upward_expansion": 26.79, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 16.23, "downward_expansion": 56.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.310167, 0.30423, 0.305769, 0.313194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.315, "trend_reference": 0.326496, "distance_from_trend": -0.03521, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.344948, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.08682, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.886991, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16, "excess_performance": -0.223706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.03521, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067312, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.08682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014306, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14887, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.52051, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19436, "relative_activity": 1.403397, "balance": 0.52051, "dry_up": 0.657256, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021781, "annualized_volatility": 0.265187, "from_high_reference": -0.275862, "from_low_reference": 0.136462 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.326496, "fair_value_reference": 0.344948, "structural_low": 0.277176, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.016828, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.026993, "regime_survival": 0.911765, "best_return": 0.128574, "worst_return": -0.1453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.100076, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.089025, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.108871, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.136915, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.144098, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": -0.012096, "worst_return": -0.285715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 58.045151, "activity_lines": [ 0.298228, 0.29795, 0.305981, 0.316903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3, "volume": 3110, "typical_volume": 18040.7, "trend": 0.330662, "fair_value": 0.345284, "relative_strength": -15.090711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.235746, "energy": 54.933593, "activity_lines": [ 0.298965, 0.297771, 0.304624, 0.314774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 3864, "typical_volume": 15081.2, "trend": 0.328829, "fair_value": 0.345132, "relative_strength": -11.214793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.885396, "energy": 24.501629, "activity_lines": [ 0.306167, 0.3015, 0.305411, 0.314086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.315, "volume": 19436, "typical_volume": 13849.25, "trend": 0.326496, "fair_value": 0.344948, "relative_strength": -14.886991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.629704, "energy": 30.670473, "activity_lines": [ 0.310167, 0.30423, 0.305769, 0.313194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }