{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a13e25a6-455c-425d-b512-a5b8d71a2351", "symbol": "688068", "name": "Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.58, "architecture_energy": 14.43, "architecture_maturity": 23.335, "architecture_confidence": 64.157, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.49, "rotation_up": 38.74, "upward_expansion": 35.1, "deceleration": 42.99, "rotation_down": 17.12, "downward_expansion": 41.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 113.332001, 109.080183, 104.168286, 108.600667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 112.139999, "trend_reference": 119.290666, "distance_from_trend": -0.059943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.637468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.27959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.928597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.228907, "excess_performance": -0.185704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155418, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.27959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069269, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131221, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261957, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19788913, "relative_activity": 1.443063, "balance": 1.261957, "dry_up": 1.67011, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171729, "annualized_volatility": 0.877493, "from_high_reference": -0.572344, "from_low_reference": 0.499799 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.290666, "fair_value_reference": 87.637468, "structural_low": 74.769997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.090439, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.109982, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.123349, "worst_return": -0.181486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.280598, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.291802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.216684, "worst_return": -0.310989, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.226425, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.258623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.217792, "worst_return": -0.525267, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177083, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068725, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.38633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", 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"activity_lines": [ 116.782668, 104.913637, 103.618762, 110.140796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 107.800003, "volume": 17966590, "typical_volume": 13128904.75, "trend": 120.952666, "fair_value": 87.178015, "relative_strength": -25.089883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.822233, "energy": 21.596619, "activity_lines": [ 115.424002, 106.814183, 103.647953, 109.169226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 112.139999, "volume": 19788913, "typical_volume": 13713135.6, "trend": 119.290666, "fair_value": 87.637468, "relative_strength": -22.928597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.579767, "energy": 14.430477, "activity_lines": [ 113.332001, 109.080183, 104.168286, 108.600667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }