{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a144c3ad-c1a5-4ed7-b839-76f78db95e63", "symbol": "TRAN-A", "name": "Transferator AB ser. A", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.29, "architecture_energy": 55.753, "architecture_maturity": 34.731, "architecture_confidence": 81.771, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.57, "rotation_up": 67.38, "upward_expansion": 86.89, "deceleration": 43.58, "rotation_down": 11.13, "downward_expansion": 11.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.385333, 1.304545, 1.216162, 1.194697 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.435, "trend_reference": 1.1868, "distance_from_trend": 0.209134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.950891, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.264439, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.610865, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108108, "excess_performance": 0.046614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.209134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007356, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.264439, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026109, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.335711, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108108, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25081, "relative_activity": 1.316788, "balance": 1.445406, "dry_up": 1.706388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198767, "annualized_volatility": 0.683626, "from_high_reference": -0.478182, "from_low_reference": 0.664733 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1868, "fair_value_reference": 1.950891, "structural_low": 0.862, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.073359, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.054095, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.242424, "worst_return": -0.402878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109594, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.179911, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021276, "worst_return": -0.355828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.042204, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.625531, "worst_return": -0.217792, "sufficient": false }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.00431, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.227811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.200837, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.385965, "volume": 22950, "typical_volume": 66040.15, "trend": 1.494258, "fair_value": 1.135746, "relative_strength": 15.866137, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"close": 1.27, "volume": 109, "typical_volume": 19238.15, "trend": 1.170967, "fair_value": 1.954388, "relative_strength": -7.449336, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.524104, "energy": 22.864271, "activity_lines": [ 1.253667, 1.207909, 1.156962, 1.158252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 33643, "typical_volume": 18638.3, "trend": 1.179133, "fair_value": 1.951786, "relative_strength": 7.299401, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.181153, "energy": 40.68517, "activity_lines": [ 1.341333, 1.263091, 1.189371, 1.178189 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.435, "volume": 25081, "typical_volume": 19047.1, "trend": 1.1868, "fair_value": 1.950891, "relative_strength": 2.610865, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.28966, "energy": 55.753086, "activity_lines": [ 1.385333, 1.304545, 1.216162, 1.194697 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }