{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a14b1d97-e17a-40a1-a566-f7b10e63ac32", "symbol": "300591", "name": "Guangdong Wanlima Industry Co. ,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.139, "architecture_energy": 24.191, "architecture_maturity": 81.016, "architecture_confidence": 61.51, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.74, "rotation_up": 22.66, "upward_expansion": 15.63, "deceleration": 63.64, "rotation_down": 44.86, "downward_expansion": 65.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.872667, 6.847273, 7.127619, 7.284946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.46, "trend_reference": 7.646333, "distance_from_trend": -0.024369, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.456667, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.155395, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.992109, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110846, "excess_performance": -0.118246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024369, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.155395, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199921, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.931237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87058180, "relative_activity": 1.183304, "balance": 0.931237, "dry_up": 1.772758, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11456, "annualized_volatility": 0.431841, "from_high_reference": -0.524538, "from_low_reference": 0.410208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.646333, "fair_value_reference": 6.456667, "structural_low": 5.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.006981, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.024989, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 0.726688, "worst_return": -0.157127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044493, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.077448, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.910596, "worst_return": -0.239295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063622, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.117491, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.377483, "worst_return": -0.31982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11811, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141079, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014159, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -38.379348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.544838, "energy": 72.371154, "activity_lines": [ 6.834667, 7.164727, 7.330619, 7.575849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.46, "volume": 154693390, "typical_volume": 63901803.15, "trend": 7.945667, "fair_value": 6.448141, "relative_strength": -31.03049, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.049114, "energy": 65.310655, "activity_lines": [ 6.670667, 6.979273, 7.239667, 7.47329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.05, "volume": 116277171, "typical_volume": 65955196.15, "trend": 7.825333, "fair_value": 6.445, "relative_strength": -34.479472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.62635, "energy": 64.123756, "activity_lines": [ 6.411333, 6.754364, 7.118667, 7.350989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.07, "volume": 163673753, "typical_volume": 71598288.3, "trend": 7.728333, "fair_value": 6.449487, "relative_strength": -21.24592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.363939, "energy": 43.274016, "activity_lines": [ 6.582, 6.756364, 7.103524, 7.302258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.46, "volume": 87058180, "typical_volume": 73572141.4, "trend": 7.646333, "fair_value": 6.456667, "relative_strength": -19.992109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.139154, "energy": 24.191493, "activity_lines": [ 6.872667, 6.847273, 7.127619, 7.284946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }