{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a14b38a9-5f7b-46fc-b303-50dd77328cfa", "symbol": "VAL", "name": "ValiRx plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.068, "architecture_energy": 54.67, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.251, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.19, "rotation_up": 28.85, "upward_expansion": 10.12, "deceleration": 60.78, "rotation_down": 46.95, "downward_expansion": 81.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001563, 0.001598, 0.001837, 0.002138 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0016, "trend_reference": 0.00256, "distance_from_trend": -0.375, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.02264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.929329, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.290244, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.536232, "excess_performance": -0.587467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.375, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.929329, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.572902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.536232, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.406035, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158451090, "relative_activity": 3.171614, "balance": 0.406035, "dry_up": 1.266259, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19375, "annualized_volatility": 0.525206, "from_high_reference": -0.811543, "from_low_reference": 0.230769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00256, "fair_value_reference": 0.02264, "structural_low": 0.0013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 46, "median_return": -0.065733, "positive_rate": 0.282609, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.069644, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.707317, "worst_return": -0.556701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.242027, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.206704, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.831169, "worst_return": -0.557377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.357143, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.334455, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.532468, "worst_return": -0.695122, "sufficient": true }, { 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-63.914319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.761372, "energy": 83.520144, "activity_lines": [ 0.00161, 0.00174, 0.00213, 0.002439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 66336988, "typical_volume": 43651806.65, "trend": 0.002772, "fair_value": 0.023898, "relative_strength": -59.402114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.081334, "energy": 67.713997, "activity_lines": [ 0.001583, 0.001689, 0.002046, 0.002359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 16340028, "typical_volume": 43791072.15, "trend": 0.002708, "fair_value": 0.023476, "relative_strength": -58.832083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.17793, "energy": 63.952331, "activity_lines": [ 0.001573, 0.001657, 0.001971, 0.002283 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0015, "volume": 11916800, "typical_volume": 42682313.65, "trend": 0.002637, "fair_value": 0.023069, "relative_strength": -60.782622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.071989, "energy": 62.887068, "activity_lines": [ 0.001547, 0.001615, 0.001895, 0.002205 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0016, "volume": 158451090, "typical_volume": 49959136.2, "trend": 0.00256, "fair_value": 0.02264, "relative_strength": -57.290244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.068322, "energy": 54.669623, "activity_lines": [ 0.001563, 0.001598, 0.001837, 0.002138 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }