{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a14c1483-b21a-4212-9542-6d4ebcf264ef", "symbol": "002846", "name": "Guangdong Enpack Packaging Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.56, "architecture_energy": 61.518, "architecture_maturity": 84.234, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 25.11, "upward_expansion": 11.29, "deceleration": 57.98, "rotation_down": 57.13, "downward_expansion": 84.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.222, 10.434545, 11.599617, 12.481886 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.65, "trend_reference": 13.723148, "distance_from_trend": -0.223939, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.426504, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067956, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.568252, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.344151, "excess_performance": -0.351551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132513, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.067956, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.446908, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13401, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.344151, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.350318, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78444873, "relative_activity": 2.063585, "balance": 0.350318, "dry_up": 1.33569, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102482, "annualized_volatility": 0.441371, "from_high_reference": -0.55033, "from_low_reference": 0.215753 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.723148, "fair_value_reference": 11.426504, "structural_low": 8.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.026604, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016121, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.207933, "worst_return": -0.276402, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.081389, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.518029, "worst_return": -0.219119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038095, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.012815, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.356754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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9.88, "volume": 24998336, "typical_volume": 35038345.8, "trend": 14.520665, "fair_value": 11.511608, "relative_strength": -44.231856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.452668, "energy": 89.654369, "activity_lines": [ 10.774, 11.512852, 12.774581, 13.552133 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.53, "volume": 35105045, "typical_volume": 35467096.25, "trend": 14.310023, "fair_value": 11.490952, "relative_strength": -40.201326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.563241, "energy": 90.328029, "activity_lines": [ 10.234667, 11.006013, 12.389921, 13.230154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.1, "volume": 31494772, "typical_volume": 34688118.45, "trend": 14.093033, "fair_value": 11.454403, "relative_strength": -42.367562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.193327, "energy": 92.738588, "activity_lines": [ 9.711333, 10.532802, 11.993592, 12.894024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.96, "volume": 58054427, "typical_volume": 36008867.05, "trend": 13.905106, "fair_value": 11.440236, "relative_strength": -28.800566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.436388, "energy": 76.662118, "activity_lines": [ 10.021333, 10.490182, 11.802316, 12.691893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.65, "volume": 78444873, "typical_volume": 38013884.8, "trend": 13.723148, "fair_value": 11.426504, "relative_strength": -33.568252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.560354, "energy": 61.517932, "activity_lines": [ 10.222, 10.434545, 11.599617, 12.481886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }