{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1506a8d-4307-4bf0-8478-ea7b8415652e", "symbol": "IMRX", "name": "Immuneering Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.55, "architecture_energy": 48.055, "architecture_maturity": 23.739, "architecture_confidence": 92.146, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.77, "rotation_up": 19.29, "upward_expansion": 14.66, "deceleration": 34.1, "rotation_down": 55.39, "downward_expansion": 80.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.428, 4.560727, 4.796429, 4.911247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.51, "trend_reference": 4.993, "distance_from_trend": -0.096735, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.119583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.967006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.085193, "excess_performance": -0.272646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096735, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111539, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094771, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055496, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158031, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137264, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3266582, "relative_activity": 0.55353, "balance": 1.137264, "dry_up": 0.603252, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172088, "annualized_volatility": 0.593192, "from_high_reference": -0.552579, "from_low_reference": 0.555172 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.993, "fair_value_reference": 4.119583, "structural_low": 3.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.099476, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.047938, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 1.396396, "worst_return": -0.309524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.207874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.112108, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.010076, "worst_return": -0.209424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.878788, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.714617, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 4.144444, "worst_return": -0.698347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.347656, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.262443, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.262402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.434445, "energy": 16.350665, "activity_lines": [ 4.876, 4.817636, 5.011143, 5.058333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 3554117, "typical_volume": 6411474.75, "trend": 5.080833, "fair_value": 4.196186, "relative_strength": -29.043483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.226901, "energy": 24.379088, "activity_lines": [ 4.708667, 4.714182, 4.934905, 5.004065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.13, "volume": 2893596, "typical_volume": 6342824.0, "trend": 4.997833, "fair_value": 4.155737, "relative_strength": -32.519856, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.260335, "energy": 41.243344, "activity_lines": [ 4.484, 4.591455, 4.845381, 4.94272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.51, "volume": 3266582, "typical_volume": 5901359.4, "trend": 4.993, "fair_value": 4.119583, "relative_strength": -29.967006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.55032, "energy": 48.054852, "activity_lines": [ 4.428, 4.560727, 4.796429, 4.911247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }