{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a1547a3b-1b83-4a83-8db0-e6d12311933a", "symbol": "PFMS", "name": "PICTON Multi-Strategy Alternative Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.917, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.583, "architecture_energy": 83.476, "architecture_maturity": 6.611, "architecture_confidence": 65.646, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.19, "rotation_up": 79.66, "upward_expansion": 93.94, "deceleration": 42.0, "rotation_down": 10.27, "downward_expansion": 18.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.314001, 16.208909, 16.15481, 16.048 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.440001, "trend_reference": 15.920333, "distance_from_trend": 0.032642, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.580192, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210587, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.257513, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.055199, "excess_performance": -0.065222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210587, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052575, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021171, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.055199, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.494118, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2103, "relative_activity": 0.266609, "balance": 1.494118, "dry_up": 1.005236, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010154, "annualized_volatility": 0.07484, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.169275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.920333, "fair_value_reference": 13.580192, "structural_low": 15.17, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.008656, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.003073, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.035129, "worst_return": -0.043424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.019114, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.028545, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.073316, "worst_return": -0.040274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046194, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.026938, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.093831, "worst_return": -0.054422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.056136, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04932, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156644, "worst_return": -0.039966, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008795, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.090356, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020717, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01171, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032184, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001485, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", 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"trend": 15.774667, "fair_value": 13.450641, "relative_strength": -5.20358, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.735615, "energy": 21.17792, "activity_lines": [ 16.031333, 16.074, 16.021048, 15.92671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.15, "volume": 11110, "typical_volume": 10452.15, "trend": 15.811, "fair_value": 13.482372, "relative_strength": -4.589352, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.968137, "energy": 22.946735, "activity_lines": [ 16.067333, 16.081636, 16.043476, 15.950925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.33, "volume": 10910, "typical_volume": 10031.7, "trend": 15.848, "fair_value": 13.515256, "relative_strength": -3.622507, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.528407, "energy": 44.110018, "activity_lines": [ 16.157333, 16.123273, 16.08181, 15.984409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.280001, "volume": 7594, "typical_volume": 8876.8, "trend": 15.886333, "fair_value": 13.546538, "relative_strength": -3.316066, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.497591, "energy": 68.81005, "activity_lines": [ 16.221334, 16.153273, 16.112429, 16.01228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.440001, "volume": 2103, "typical_volume": 7887.95, "trend": 15.920333, "fair_value": 13.580192, "relative_strength": -5.257513, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.583401, "energy": 83.476126, "activity_lines": [ 16.314001, 16.208909, 16.15481, 16.048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }