{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a1566f94-c3b3-4177-9399-0bc4cd8c265d",
    "symbol": "VJPN",
    "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Distributing",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 59.311,
    "architecture_energy": 32.153,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.52,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.729,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 25.08,
        "rotation_up": 37.79,
        "upward_expansion": 61.04,
        "deceleration": 85.41,
        "rotation_down": 26.84,
        "downward_expansion": 20.04
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        44.257666,
        44.327912,
        43.740148,
        43.046159
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 45.404999,
    "trend_reference": 42.217896,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.075492,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.607265,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.312008,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.959075,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.102893,
    "excess_performance": 0.038253,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.075492,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.053706,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.312008,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035836,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049591,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.072865,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.102893,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.505595,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 31596,
      "relative_activity": 0.962741,
      "balance": 1.505595,
      "dry_up": 1.066378,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030546,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.1955,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003511,
      "from_low_reference": 0.289281
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 42.217896,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.607265,
      "structural_low": 38.275002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.019113,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008994,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.084793,
        "worst_return": -0.025732,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.01414,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005921,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.141867,
        "worst_return": -0.071766,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.016202,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036694,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.10741,
        "worst_return": -0.085433,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.015927,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053853,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.271053,
        "worst_return": -0.12692,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.086179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-30",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000675,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.002738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030343,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.005296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074836,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.066842,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
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        "return": 0.035265,
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 32417.7,
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        "fair_value": 34.097074,
        "relative_strength": 8.543853,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 34.207524,
        "relative_strength": 10.978562,
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        "energy": 80.813046,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 41046,
        "typical_volume": 32886.8,
        "trend": 41.629007,
        "fair_value": 34.302587,
        "relative_strength": 6.296896,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 61.602398,
        "energy": 47.304998,
        "activity_lines": [
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          42.571083
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 43.889999,
        "volume": 30723,
        "typical_volume": 33381.05,
        "trend": 41.835549,
        "fair_value": 34.39776,
        "relative_strength": 7.046815,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.247004,
        "energy": 36.829387,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.064666,
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          43.364093,
          42.716954
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 43.560001,
        "volume": 36624,
        "typical_volume": 32866.45,
        "trend": 42.026764,
        "fair_value": 34.49637,
        "relative_strength": 3.728236,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.131659,
        "energy": 24.85804,
        "activity_lines": [
          43.823333,
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          43.472595,
          42.828209
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 45.404999,
        "volume": 31596,
        "typical_volume": 32818.8,
        "trend": 42.217896,
        "fair_value": 34.607265,
        "relative_strength": 4.959075,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.311384,
        "energy": 32.152754,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}