{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a157cd68-6eb6-4230-85c0-b838c6e5d37f", "symbol": "300052", "name": "Shenzhen Zqgame Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.481, "architecture_energy": 68.464, "architecture_maturity": 16.425, "architecture_confidence": 83.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.08, "rotation_up": 10.13, "upward_expansion": 15.18, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 72.79, "downward_expansion": 90.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.201333, 10.876182, 11.825714, 12.26929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.13, "trend_reference": 12.797667, "distance_from_trend": -0.13031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.096538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.022163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161266, "excess_performance": -0.168666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210444, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244603, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130222, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182643, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.014124, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169114728, "relative_activity": 1.917989, "balance": 1.014124, "dry_up": 1.004873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168706, "annualized_volatility": 0.79253, "from_high_reference": -0.339466, "from_low_reference": 0.294186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.797667, "fair_value_reference": 14.096538, "structural_low": 8.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.02965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007992, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 1.09178, "worst_return": -0.171322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072022, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.089543, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.769168, "worst_return": -0.232804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027746, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.004767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.48124, "worst_return": -0.250259, "sufficient": true 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077519, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.187845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117874, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06993, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", 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10.432667, 11.334182, 12.209571, 12.576258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.88, "volume": 70410932, "typical_volume": 81343265.95, "trend": 12.845333, "fair_value": 14.142949, "relative_strength": -18.913855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.654807, "energy": 70.69715, "activity_lines": [ 9.968, 10.942364, 11.949333, 12.379957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.13, "volume": 169114728, "typical_volume": 88172947.2, "trend": 12.797667, "fair_value": 14.096538, "relative_strength": -13.022163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.480748, "energy": 68.46369, "activity_lines": [ 10.201333, 10.876182, 11.825714, 12.26929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }