{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a157d1dc-7a6f-4f62-9457-4beef2f953a6", "symbol": "CST", "name": "Castile Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -83.585, "architecture_energy": 69.686, "architecture_maturity": 52.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.244, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 18.75, "upward_expansion": 12.05, "deceleration": 46.68, "rotation_down": 67.86, "downward_expansion": 85.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.070333, 0.0736, 0.080643, 0.085718 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.0945, "distance_from_trend": -0.333333, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.079747, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.21, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.401024, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.515385, "excess_performance": -0.57909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.21, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.452727, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.37401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.515385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.557709, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1601836, "relative_activity": 1.162072, "balance": 1.557709, "dry_up": 0.461291, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126374, "annualized_volatility": 0.539389, "from_high_reference": -0.58, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0945, "fair_value_reference": 0.079747, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.005208, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001834, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.491228, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.0241, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.068501, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.574468, "worst_return": -0.397436, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051282, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.07801, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.267857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.0857, 0.091252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.073, "volume": 267979, "typical_volume": 1380202.55, "trend": 0.099067, "fair_value": 0.079548, "relative_strength": -23.225248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.140293, "energy": 70.747488, "activity_lines": [ 0.0742, 0.077855, 0.084133, 0.089469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.075, "volume": 421466, "typical_volume": 1359553.0, "trend": 0.097067, "fair_value": 0.079708, "relative_strength": -23.113556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.507955, "energy": 67.742123, "activity_lines": [ 0.074, 0.076673, 0.08291, 0.087916 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 1601836, "typical_volume": 1378431.3, "trend": 0.0945, "fair_value": 0.079747, "relative_strength": -37.401024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.584912, "energy": 69.686041, "activity_lines": [ 0.070333, 0.0736, 0.080643, 0.085718 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }