{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a15a700c-a681-40e3-a02a-8675e40ae058", "symbol": "6706", "name": "Fittech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.835, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -34.768, "architecture_energy": 56.549, "architecture_maturity": 17.295, "architecture_confidence": 65.416, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.14, "rotation_up": 17.25, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 66.27, "downward_expansion": 59.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.7, 120.281818, 139.480952, 140.192473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 118.0, "trend_reference": 137.4, "distance_from_trend": -0.141194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.040129, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191436, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.803732, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030568, "excess_performance": -0.410804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.141194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191436, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.509596, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238037, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407062, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030568, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.699256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10086027, "relative_activity": 0.377067, "balance": 1.699256, "dry_up": 0.339379, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.231356, "annualized_volatility": 0.882051, "from_high_reference": -0.475556, "from_low_reference": 1.020548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.4, "fair_value_reference": 99.040129, "structural_low": 87.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.083744, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.060779, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.028501, "worst_return": -0.164609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.295213, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.178029, "worst_return": -0.489712, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.447737, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.308878, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.23274, "worst_return": -0.48109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.164609, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.366197, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.158981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.554233, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"energy": 45.057015, "activity_lines": [ 123.7, 142.354545, 150.690476, 146.096774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 97.0, "volume": 7624855, "typical_volume": 29515353.25, "trend": 138.4, "fair_value": 98.485001, "relative_strength": -33.567244, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.997304, "energy": 62.226109, "activity_lines": [ 112.3, 131.345455, 145.790476, 143.346237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.0, "volume": 9096912, "typical_volume": 28602783.1, "trend": 137.483333, "fair_value": 98.728591, "relative_strength": -27.158654, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.213155, "energy": 60.700379, "activity_lines": [ 108.0, 124.118182, 142.178571, 141.449462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 118.0, "volume": 10086027, "typical_volume": 26748660.7, "trend": 137.4, "fair_value": 99.040129, "relative_strength": -23.803732, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.767987, "energy": 56.548819, "activity_lines": [ 109.7, 120.281818, 139.480952, 140.192473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }