{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a15b09bc-0df5-4848-9fbd-5de553b7ece2", "symbol": "MODTHREAD", "name": "Modern Threads (India) Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.98, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.352, "architecture_energy": 35.199, "architecture_maturity": 42.289, "architecture_confidence": 83.83, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.71, "rotation_up": 59.21, "upward_expansion": 83.23, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 14.93, "downward_expansion": 5.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.927334, 47.321455, 46.683286, 46.483334 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 48.240002, "trend_reference": 45.785334, "distance_from_trend": 0.053613, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.552538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.013334, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.127366, "excess_performance": 0.171075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012129, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035771, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.040133, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000832, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.127366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.339885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4460, "relative_activity": 0.68417, "balance": 0.339885, "dry_up": 1.014903, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089616, "annualized_volatility": 0.443164, "from_high_reference": -0.221935, "from_low_reference": 0.354676 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.785334, "fair_value_reference": 49.552538, "structural_low": 35.610001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.01023, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001006, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.045909, "worst_return": -0.039092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.01367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04766, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054119, "worst_return": -0.081459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.03931, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092064, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.03931, "worst_return": 0.03931, "sufficient": false }, { 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46.32491, 46.275952, 46.028925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.66, "volume": 7764, "typical_volume": 13243.6, "trend": 45.577333, "fair_value": 49.575859, "relative_strength": 6.189217, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.538987, "energy": 33.25879, "activity_lines": [ 47.65, 46.646546, 46.363714, 46.171312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.880001, "volume": 2182, "typical_volume": 7027.25, "trend": 45.706333, "fair_value": 49.562713, "relative_strength": 4.020925, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.369596, "energy": 39.134855, "activity_lines": [ 47.792, 46.978182, 46.493381, 46.319871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.240002, "volume": 4460, "typical_volume": 6518.85, "trend": 45.785334, "fair_value": 49.552538, "relative_strength": 4.013334, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.352126, "energy": 35.199476, "activity_lines": [ 47.927334, 47.321455, 46.683286, 46.483334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }