{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "a15bce72-543d-4e7c-a886-31c58b0bf7e2",
    "symbol": "TELE",
    "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Europe Communication Services UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 69.837,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -20.385,
    "architecture_energy": 14.184,
    "architecture_maturity": 40.758,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.972,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.71,
        "rotation_up": 30.2,
        "upward_expansion": 15.11,
        "deceleration": 42.86,
        "rotation_down": 27.96,
        "downward_expansion": 62.78
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        74.703001,
        74.256819,
        74.718881,
        75.103935
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 76.095001,
    "trend_reference": 75.195666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.01196,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 69.777468,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.090538,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -7.154556,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.038414,
    "excess_performance": -0.012821,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01196,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007476,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.090538,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003458,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.071546,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021296,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.038414,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 48.608804,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 45108,
      "relative_activity": 1.197997,
      "balance": 48.608804,
      "dry_up": 0.403595,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.026621,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.167433,
      "from_high_reference": -0.061482,
      "from_low_reference": 0.086761
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 75.195666,
      "fair_value_reference": 69.777468,
      "structural_low": 71.720001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.005576,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001244,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.080772,
        "worst_return": -0.056149,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.034624,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.001609,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.106518,
        "worst_return": -0.057121,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.079423,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032402,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.085264,
        "worst_return": -0.000972,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.018135,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.007916,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.160116,
        "worst_return": -0.123846,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-03-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002883,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-22",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005511,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.102205,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-10",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020088,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024441,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.084347,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012657,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056149,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.033867,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019256,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-07-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.060936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-10",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.038698,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 54.395,
        "volume": 791,
        "typical_volume": 85786.8,
        "trend": 57.572666,
        "fair_value": 56.010977,
        "relative_strength": 1.144596,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-09-22",
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        "typical_volume": 10126.65,
        "trend": 74.806167,
        "fair_value": 68.144167,
        "relative_strength": -11.147032,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 9.844307,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 22651.65,
        "trend": 74.705333,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 37027.65,
        "trend": 74.581667,
        "fair_value": 68.333782,
        "relative_strength": -8.442821,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 16.36425,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 78.419998,
        "volume": 1632,
        "typical_volume": 37096.8,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 34.267211,
        "energy": 18.356319,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 37093.65,
        "trend": 74.637667,
        "fair_value": 68.600353,
        "relative_strength": -6.36232,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 35.389193,
        "energy": 17.939274,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 36665.3,
        "trend": 74.709333,
        "fair_value": 68.722756,
        "relative_strength": -7.776161,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 16.176085,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "trend": 74.806166,
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        "relative_strength": -6.416469,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 74.846833,
        "fair_value": 68.97266,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 73.480003,
        "volume": 3151,
        "typical_volume": 36176.55,
        "trend": 74.856666,
        "fair_value": 69.083301,
        "relative_strength": -9.579205,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -22.838164,
        "energy": 31.112248,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.602666,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 72.43,
        "volume": 153,
        "typical_volume": 35058.7,
        "trend": 74.873999,
        "fair_value": 69.194263,
        "relative_strength": -11.801096,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -41.244466,
        "energy": 52.765557,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 73.260002,
        "volume": 3706,
        "typical_volume": 34968.6,
        "trend": 74.926666,
        "fair_value": 69.301955,
        "relative_strength": -8.828281,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -34.116888,
        "energy": 56.400112,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 74.355003,
        "volume": 10899,
        "typical_volume": 35268.2,
        "trend": 74.996,
        "fair_value": 69.416891,
        "relative_strength": -7.957163,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -29.913025,
        "energy": 52.417584,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.521335,
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          74.882476,
          75.175742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 73.519997,
        "volume": 3612,
        "typical_volume": 35425.8,
        "trend": 75.031333,
        "fair_value": 69.519199,
        "relative_strength": -9.692431,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -31.454557,
        "energy": 44.125786,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.542667,
          74.011455,
          74.694,
          75.080516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 74.385002,
        "volume": 1167,
        "typical_volume": 35460.65,
        "trend": 75.085666,
        "fair_value": 69.64218,
        "relative_strength": -9.342637,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -52.234111,
        "energy": 29.903636,
        "activity_lines": [
          73.868001,
          73.942,
          74.615143,
          75.038817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 76.095001,
        "volume": 45108,
        "typical_volume": 37652.85,
        "trend": 75.195666,
        "fair_value": 69.777468,
        "relative_strength": -7.154556,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.384808,
        "energy": 14.184094,
        "activity_lines": [
          74.703001,
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          75.103935
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}