{ "ticker": { "uuid": "a15d6ea2-73b9-48e3-8c2a-5fb294adf6aa", "symbol": "CCC", "name": "Cavotec Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.031, "architecture_energy": 17.052, "architecture_maturity": 46.016, "architecture_confidence": 88.171, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.86, "rotation_up": 32.86, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 38.27, "rotation_down": 30.21, "downward_expansion": 58.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.326667, 12.190909, 12.394762, 12.497312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.3, "trend_reference": 12.801667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.855705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.224254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.243506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.108696, "excess_performance": -0.17019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052079, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.224254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222435, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013623, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.108696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6471, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41522, "relative_activity": 0.779049, "balance": 0.6471, "dry_up": 0.943327, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067855, "annualized_volatility": 0.342778, "from_high_reference": -0.326027, "from_low_reference": 0.118182 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.801667, "fair_value_reference": 15.855705, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.021429, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.027817, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.24375, "worst_return": -0.195783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043881, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.085856, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.35102, "worst_return": -0.279412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.152642, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.314286, "worst_return": -0.457965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.641808, "energy": 38.897942, "activity_lines": [ 11.903333, 12.096364, 12.456429, 12.647312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.75, "volume": 60737, "typical_volume": 54386.95, "trend": 12.928333, "fair_value": 15.875577, "relative_strength": -24.581203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.228095, "energy": 34.934113, "activity_lines": [ 11.833333, 11.986364, 12.387143, 12.567957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.7, "volume": 59191, "typical_volume": 53892.65, "trend": 12.901667, "fair_value": 15.871731, "relative_strength": -18.888163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.206084, "energy": 26.288556, "activity_lines": [ 12.076667, 12.073636, 12.410476, 12.553226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.6, "volume": 39661, "typical_volume": 52916.3, "trend": 12.865, "fair_value": 15.866282, "relative_strength": -19.744577, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.875519, "energy": 19.575729, "activity_lines": [ 12.246667, 12.153636, 12.419524, 12.533763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.3, "volume": 41522, "typical_volume": 53298.3, "trend": 12.801667, "fair_value": 15.855705, "relative_strength": -22.243506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.030825, "energy": 17.052064, "activity_lines": [ 12.326667, 12.190909, 12.394762, 12.497312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }